You can not like it, and you can certainly disagree. A lot can happen and change. Polls and prognostications can be skewed or just flat-out wrong. People can be deceived, even by themselves. Of course it is to be assumed that I’m stupid, racist, sexist, Trump- cult, a gang rapist, yadda yadda yadda....assign whatever you wish and most prefer to me, my beliefs, this post. But this is 100% true as to how the GOP machine sees November, and speaks to their confidence in their internal polling. Someone other than Biden had better emerge from the DNC Convention, IMO.
What if it is Biden, the camp messaging remains as the above right up to the day, and it isn't a landslide or even a win? E.g., is the GOP machine going to be held to account if they turn out to be wishcasting?
What internal polling? The chatter on the internal polling has been the opposite from the Republican camp. Internal polling isn't much to go on anyway, since, obviously, it's an unknown. But, that article is long on hope and little on substance and, as noted in the article, the Republican structure has replaced a lot of their figures with Trump sycophants. These are people who haven't exactly been at one with reality or know not to express it to their Don. I heard the same thing from the Republicans in 2016, 2012....on the "evisceration" in the debates. Realistically, Trump has been losing to Biden for a year and they need the narrative to change for Trump to win because, if the election were today, it would be Biden winning easily. The election is still months away, though. Plenty can change.
Internal national polling is looking that way, but this is looking at rural. And rural hasn't changed. The question is whether rural will be enough, as it was in 2016.
First, you’ll get no qualms from me in jabbing these public-facing political pundits, as there is usually a very good reason why they’re in front of a camera or writing blogs about politics....because no one wants and will pay them to work on their campaign (there are a few superstars who are notable exceptions - Carville leaps to mind). Second, what happened to all the Hillary strategists when she lost? That’s a sincere question because I’d expect the same. These cats are all hired guns and each have access to roughly the same internal data. The Dems were as “shocked” by the 2016 election as I am when Tennessee doesn’t win the Natty, after I’ve spent an entire off-season convincing myself to believe such was possible, and based entirely on my refusal to rule out the possibility of such a hopefully unlikely event.
The polling wasn't nearly as off as people think. Most were just surprised a buffoon like Trump could get elected and didn't pay attention to or believe the 25-30% chance the polling was showing for Trump.
The problem for Trump is in the suburbs as the GOP bled votes there in the 2018 midterms. Rural America isn't anywhere close to enough, but the suburban vote carried him through by the slimmest of margins in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Plus, Hillary did a horrible job if getting her own vote out in the cities, completely ignoring places like Milwaukee. So, does he get the votes there in 2020? He can't afford to be like Obama in 2012, getting fewer votes than the previous election, because the margins will be too slim for him to run the table on the swing states once again. Plus, he's done a poor job of bringing more people under his umbrella. His base is super passionate, one of the weirdest political cults I've ever seen, but they'll come out to vote for him. Not as many will come out specifically because they love them some Uncle Joe. But, the votes still count the same and those that come out still have to vote for someone. And, if Trump doesn't reverse the current trend in the suburbs, he's in massive danger. The volume of voters favor a Democrat, the reliance on the spreading of that vote in the EC favors a Republican. I'm still not sure which will win out in the end.
As a person that lives in rural America. It's not hard to figure out. For the first time in my life instead of manufacturing declining in my home town, it's actually expanding. This has lead to main street businesses coming back, a crap ton of food trucks, hardware stores busy as hell, property prices increasing, school enrollment increasing instead of decreasing and contractors being booked so far in advanced that it's hard to get anything done.
If the rest of the map stays the same, Trump has to drop all three of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And that seems unlikely. There are a few counties in Michigan where the numbers flip it. But one of the three isn't sufficient.
Just glancing at a map right now I'd put hard numbers at 243 for Biden and 185 for Trump. If I'm Biden I'm willing to sacrifice PA and NC to get Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin.
I don't think Michigan is going for Trump this time and Wisconsin is always razor thin, even more so in 2016. But, they have trended strongly Democratic since 2016. Pennsylvania is a little more unknown, to me, but they have been solidly Democratic since the 80s outside of 2016. So, I find it very possible they return back to their precedent of being Democratic as much as anything. Again, looking at the numbers in 2016, Trump really had to thread the needle in a number of states and it seems more unlikely he doesn't again than does. I do, agree, though, the election will run on these three states. If we are talking Florida, Ohio, Arizona, then the election is pretty much over anyway.
Ohio is going to be a hard get for Biden, in my opinion. The Democrats exchanged Virginia for Ohio on the map, really. Florida always seems to have just a little bit more Republicans in the north and middle than Democrats in the south part of the state. Another hard get for Biden, as is North Carolina. But, if he's getting those two states, he's probably winning with comfort. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are almost non-negotiable needs for Biden, kind of like Arizona and Florida are for Trump. Actually, I think Trump has a higher number of needed states, but those are death knells for each candidate.
I think this easily carries the day. From what I hear, and it’s really barely more than a guess, is that these riots aren’t helping Biden / hurting Trump, at all.
