Trump’s meltdown if he wins 269 and the House picks the president would be both gratifying and terrifying.
Would the sitting House pick the Pres or the House elect? With gerrymandering I have to think the House is probably back in Republican hands if he gets to 269
Yep. Although honestly I think it more likely than not that he wins Maine 2. He won it by over ten points in 2016.
Yeah, I think 269-269 is very unlikely. Maybe if a third party candidate runs, but even then, it’s highly unlikely they could steal a state. I think it’s highly possible Kasich runs to sabotage Trump, but he won’t win a state.
If Beto runs, I think video of him sitting in a diner in Idaho where he has no chance of winning is going to play well with the little guy in Arizona, Wisconsin, etc. I have to think his Texas strategy will at least somewhat carry over to a nationwide race.
I’m right on more than you seem to recall, but I don’t care enough to argue the point with you. I’m dumb, Trump was just a lucky guess, you’re really, really smart...just plug in any that you prefer, man. I’ll go one step further and say this - only a navel-gazing, poll-loving, goofily naive person could have failed to see Trump coming from 1,000 miles away. I’m infinite less impressed with anyone who saw it, than those self-styled experts - such as yourself - allowed your own bias to blind you to it. And you’ll do it all again in 2020. Because you’re still dumb. And you’re going to slow play hitching your wagon to Kamala Harris, and watch her get lit up in shit that you have no idea even exists, at the moment. Again, because you’re dumb. Trump’s a much, much, MUCH stronger candidate now than he was in ‘16, and you’re not going to have NEARLY the many, sizable and important advantages that Hillary had then, either. Which is why I still say that it’s Hillary until it isn’t. And despite her (still) being the best hope you’ve got - he’s going to annihalate her, or any other Dem on the radar, at the moment. Here, Un, let me give you a chance to make a prediction: Will Trump be re-elected or not? Yes or No?
Trump can certainly lose. His negatives are always very high. He’s far too polarizing. The mobility and financing of the effort to oust him will be extraordinary - and will dwarf those in ‘16. But he’s an infinitely stronger candidate going into ‘20 than he was ‘16. Infinitely. It doesn’t matter one whit how much more hated he’s become during his first term, amongst those that hated and didn’t vote for him to begin with. Some people think that they’ll get two votes for hating him strongly enough, but they won’t. Barring the completely unforeseen, he’ll not noun win re-Election, but by a much wider margin than ‘16.
I don't buy Trump being a stronger candidate now that he was, unless you are only counting the incumbency advantage. Dems just had a really good election, and Trump was on the minds of a lot of folks in the exit polls. Trump helped some Senators in some deep red States but a bunch of folks he endorsed lost or underperformed to historical Republican numbers. I may hold on it and say he is essentially the same candidate he was, but the Dem turnarounds in the Rust Belt, beating Kobach, picking up seats in usually red Texas, Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina, etc. paint a good picture at all for the direction of the electorate heading into 2020. If the economy slows or we have even a minor recession, I'm full sell.
The one way that he is not a stronger candidate is that the group that voted for him assuming he would at least be presidential after being elected now have there answer. But he could make up for that with people that vote for him based on economy. However, I still see significant economic risk as we near Nov 2020 - though the president has means of holding that off pre-election.
I still believe the stress/fatigue born from this divisiveness ultimately drives many away from him. Not his base, certainly, but others who voted for him in 16 and even like much of what he's doing. The question is does what you like about him outweigh the many negatives? Is this crazy and growing divide (which he didn't create, but is now pressing with a massive lever) worth it? I do not believe this is who we truly are. I don't. And I believe there are many more like me out there today and more to come in the next 2 years. He's not changing how he operates. See the abhorrent response to CA wildfires this weekend. This stuff compounds and is not sustainable. We all know this.
The wildfire comments have been nuts. That's chapparel, it's naturally flammable. He doesn't understand this issue. And it isn't possible to evaluate fire risk without talking about climate change. This isn't 2006. We're in it now.
Exactly. And I know this is your space, but these fires have nothing (or extremely little) to do with mismanagement. It is heavily climate related, though. But this administration does not believe/is unwilling to broach the topic. We get what we deserve, but it's still a damn shame.
Agreed, this isn't wildland, and that is an easily verifiable fact. This is the natural suburban/rural vegetation interface. This is private property, and it isn't "forest." It'd be like Halls or Farragut burning. Nothing to do with federal or state land management.
And, from what I understand, this is all handled by the Federal forestry agency, anywho. Telling California to fix their problems or you will pull Fed money is like telling Parris Island to fix their shit or you are going to pull Federal money. NOTE: Parris Island is the first military base that came to mind, and is in no way meant to slight any of our Marines on this board.
He doesn't understand and his initial response was to politicize a crisis which has taken several lives with likely many more to come. It's repulsive.
