Would the P5 schools will have to buy out those games? It would at least be some cash, though not as much as playing the game.
So if they move the season to the spring, would they play the 2021 season in the fall? I assume they would right?
Probably somewhere in between. 5 or so fall games and a good chance of a spring schedule. Money crunch and classes should make the spring thing work, imo.
Read an article on the Athletic that mentioned potential differences in testing frequency between wealthy P5 schools and FCS schools as an example. The article might have been by Ubben. I don't recall. It makes sense that conferences would be able to establish a uniform set of rules/procedures for testing, disinfection, whatever that would be financially sustainable by the member programs. Schools from the SEC or ACC should be able to do more than the MAC just because of resources. Even beyond money, it makes some sense that conferences should be able to decide what kinds of protective measures, adequate or not, they would be willing to implement. It's all about risk and how much is too much.
If they decide to move it to the spring, wonder what that would do to the basketball season, does it get pushed back also?
At the very least, testing and treatments should be more advanced and prevalent. Lot of assumptions there, but just having three more months of information would be helpful at this point.
809 new cases yesterday in New York. If that is what herd immunity gets you, that's 295,285 cases in a year in New York and thousands of deaths. I think the herd immunity talk is premature and wishful thinking.
Herd immunity isn’t a magic bullet that means no more cases but they’re not seeing huge spikes and death. New York City had more people die in shootings than the virus the other day.
But the vulnerable would never be able to resume public life as before if that is the level of potential exposure in a "herd immunity" setting. And the deaths yesterday have nothing to do with the new cases yesterday. Lag, blah blah blah.
Also budesonide taken by nebulizer is showing quite a bit of promise and might be the reason people with breathing issues haven’t been an at risk group.
The herd immunity questions are very interesting to me. On one hand it doesn't make sense that we would achieve herd immunity at infections levels of 25-30%, given experience with viruses. However, if a certain fraction of the population has high cross-immunity from other coronaviruses, then it would be possible, I suppose. Another thing that can happen is a bit of a head fake. TECHNICAL herd immunity is unimpacted by social distancing. It is impacted by inherent properties of the virus, so if it mutates to a less transmissible (or more transmissible) form, then the percent recovered required for herd immunity will move down (or up). However, if people in general are having on average 50% less contacts, then the Reff will half, and the fraction required for temporary herd immunity will drop. I think that in general across the world this might be more of what we are seeing. People just aren't back to normal. Regardless of the exact numbers, places like New York will continue to struggle from infection introduction, which will keep it harder to drive to zero, as long as huge regions of the country still have high infection rates. New York won't light off from it, but you'll keep some baseline level of daily infections even if at real herd immunity.
I think a. Lot think T cells from previous Coronavirus infections helps a lot and is the reason younger people with bigger social groups have better outcomes
