I can't be objective. Even when I think I'm being objective, I'm probably not being objective, and so I just don't mess with it. Then I see Tennessee-4 vs. NC State. And I'm quite tempted. Succulent and delicious appears the forbidden fruit.
I had the same rule when I was betting, and it was a good one, and mine included Vandy as well. There is succulent fruit elsewhere.
Surprisingly I haven't found as much succulence in week 1 as I'm accustomed to finding. Last season, the single best line of the entire season came on the first weekend. Not seeing it this year. I set the lines myself before I look at them (to avoid "anchoring bias"), and then use the discrepancy between the line I set and the actual line to gauge the succulence of the game. I pretty much hit all the lines on the dot. And this isn't a good thing. I usually find a lot of value in the opening weekend. I expected to find a lot of value this opening weekend. But then I didn't. And you can't force the Free Money. You gotta let the Free Money come to you.
That's pretty much the method I used when I was playing, and opening weekend was always strange--either really active or really slow. I finally had to just reconcile myself to passing on some weekends, and it made me more successful. My most profitable season saw me bet a total of 12 games, including bowls. I never bet UT or Vandy, mainly because I always wanted to bet them. After about the second year, I never bet NFL, NBA, or NCAABB, mainly because I suck at betting them. I still don't know how anybody who doesn't have a referee on their payroll can accurately handicap a pro basketball game ATS and beat it 55% of the time.
I hate betting opening weekend. It's too risky for me, I at least need one or two weeks of data to base decisions on.
Tennessee is historically one of the worst teams to bet on against the spread. I can't bring myself to bet on them cause at some point I may be rooting for them as purely a gambler and not a fan.
(1) Wow. Talk about picking your spots. (2) 1. If NFL can be beat, I haven't met the person who can beat it. Hyper-parity is not conducive to gambling. 2. Crazy as it sounds, I actually think the NBA is even more difficult than the NFL, but for different reasons. The players don't play hard every game. And unless you're able to figure out which nights the star player is planning on mailing it in, that's sort of a dealbreaker from a gambling perspective. 3. College basketball can be beat. But it's exhausting. There are just so many teams. I felt like I had a really good handle on the college basketball landscape by the time the season got into February, and I did quite well the rest of the year. I've had good years in CBB, but never a great year. I really think it takes more energy than it's worth. The two best sports for gambling, imo, are tennis and college football. CFB is how I got started into it, and it's where I've had the most success. Tennis is a more recent experiment, but the sample size is now large enough to allow me to begin to draw conclusions. Conclusion: I win a lot more than I lose; there is ALWAYS a professional tennis tournament being played somewhere, which is lovely; and it's low maintenance -- I don't have to research.
Define historically. Based on your definition of historically, I'm pretty sure what you wrote is completely inaccurate. I'd like to see what sort of evidence you could offer up in support of that statement.
Think about it the opposite way. The lines are soft early. With each passing week, the lines get better and better (i.e. harder to beat).
I get better and better with each week. I've got about 12 years of college pick' em and 6 years of betting that shows my front end choices pale in comparison to the end of the season decisions.
Don't have anything concrete. When I bet on games ( been awhile ) it seemed like UT never covered the spread when they were the favorite and kept it closer when they were supposed to get beat. The lines I played were different than Vegas, so not sure where you place your bets but the bookie I went through set his own lines, which were fair and close to the Vegas lines. May just be selective memory on my part. Either way, I avoid them at all costs for the reason I stated earlier.
