It is getting simpler. Teams in position, fully in control of their fate: UGA, tOSU, Michigan, and TCU. I believe that Michigan is out if they lose. Next on deck is Tennessee, then USC, and then Clemson assuming all 3 run the table. In other words, I believe that if tOSU wins out, then Tennessee is in the playoffs if Tennessee wins out. UNC and LSU would need a lot of help to get into the top 4, essentially needing 3 of the 7 teams to somehow fall off the table.
Things to watch for: USC has to beat 3 top 25 teams in a row to finish without another loss. They've only played one top 25 team so far and they lost by two scores. UNC has to play NC State before they play Clemson. It is entirely possible UNC could lose to NC State and then beat Clemson, taking the ACC out completely. Clemson has to play South Carolina and UNC. They'll have to show up down the stretch to even hang around at the edge of the conversation. TCU travels to Baylor. That is a 50/50 game. TCU may be facing KSU in the Big 12 championship. KSU had them down 28-10 in the second quarter @TCU in the regular season. It is entirely possible that one of the B1G teams stumbles to finish the season. Crazier things have happened. I think we are already now very probably in if Tennessee wins out, but if any or some of these things happen, it will be a virtual lock come Vandy week.
A TCU or USC loss is all that Tennessee needs. Don’t worry about the loser of OSU/Mich or a one loss ACC champ. None of that matters.
And a win over Top 15 (or higher) Notre Dame, who took down Clemson and USC (assuming the latter happens).
Let’s play best case scenario for Ohio State. They lose close at home to Michigan. Notre Dame and Penn St both win out. Ohio State would have a win over two loss Penn St and three loss Notre Dame. Tennessee would have wins over two loss Alabama and three loss LSU. Tennessee would have lost on the road against #1 UGA while OSU would have lost at home against #2 Michigan. That’s advantage Tennessee.
I’m factoring in the committee’s likely desire to put Ohio State in, along with their probable fellating of Notre Dame, should they win out and beat USC. Committee might have them in the top 10.
I will still stand by my stance that if LSU by some witch magic and [uck fay]ery beats UGA that it would knock us out no matter what. Because I've seen enough TV mouthbreathers already excusing LSU's 2 losses for a scenario just like that. I don't think LSU is going to take down UGA but you just never know for sure what could happen in any given game.
I feel like they would flip the Big 10 winner to 1 to justify two from that conference making it while keeping Tennessee out.
Unless LSU wipes the floor with UGA they won’t get in over us. The media is talking that scenario up. I don’t believe the committee thinks like the media does.
The pressure to win over the next 2 weeks might be enough to get one of these teams to trip up and drop a needed loss. It's still crazy to me that we are in Nov talking about Tennessee in the playoffs. I love this team.
The Vol fan in me is scared to death and is just waiting for the inevitable kick in the balls this season. The rational part of me looks at everything objectively and honestly can't see a way were not in the top 4 unless something REALLY screwy happens.
