COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Found one.

 

Trying to track things like death rates also starts getting riddled with error.

Let’s say you have 100,000 actual cases on Monday. You will likely have 400,000 cases by the following Sunday.

But the average person who gets the virus in the first few days of that week won’t become symptomatic until that weekend. And then if they are ultimately going to die they likely won’t die until a week later. So the deaths that are being recorded two weeks later really represent deaths occurring due to infection when cases were just 100,000-200,000. At that point, actual cases would have climbed closer to 1.6 million.

 

add to that the issue of "pre-existing conditions." If someone has x and then also COVID and dies, was it x or COVID? Most people seem to want to believe x is the culprit, but it isn't black and white.

 

Fortunately, we live in a nation where almost no one has pre-existing conditions.

 

So, India is locking it down. Am I wrong to think that India is the worse possible country for this thing to get loose in?

 

Are there any nations of one 80+ year old man that smokes and doesn’t wash his hands?

 

Ruh roh.

First, in a small study involving 30 patients, hydroxychloroquine, used on top of conventional treatments, cleared the virus in 13 (86.7%) cases on day 7, while 14 (93.3%) patients in the control group had the virus cleared, according to a study abstract Raffat obtained. One patient on the malaria med progressed to severe during the treatment.

 

On the positive side, evidently studies are showing the virus does not appear to be mutating much at all. Helps on the vaccine front.

 

And is that 7% inside the margin of error? 30 is not a big sample, so it just might be and that would make it statistically meaningless.

 

Not a big sample size, but certainly not encouraging that it didn’t even match the control.

 

That would definitely not be statistically significant.

 

Maybe the principality of Sealand.

 

Wasn't it a combination of this drug and something else that was showing a bit more promise, anecdotally?

 

30 is a good number for an initial trial, statistically. Human trials are expensive or circumstantial

 

Have seen a few different combos but at one point just the malaria drug by itself was touted as effective.

 

I think Chloroquine + Zpak has the most potential right now.

 

It might be just that z-pack is limiting bacterial infections associated with the pneumonia.

 

I can't find the page right now, but Oxford had posted a good discussion surrounding Case Fatality Rates (CFR) vs Infected Fatality Rates (IFR). CFR only includes confirmed cases, is affected by testing limitations, and excludes asymptomatic cases for the most part. So while we see a 1-3% CFR, it may actually be 0.15%-0.20% IFR.

They mentioned that months into H1N1, death rates hovered around 1% while actual rates were much much lower.

However, I don't think this bodes well for the first wave of cases and the impact on hospitals.

 

Posted yesterday afternoon.

 

Thats good news, at the moment. Ill take it.