COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

TT, if 10 mil do have it and 14k have died, its .0014.
IF.

 

Just fyi

 

Oh yes. Let’s go into more detail on this.

 

Take it up with the medical stats guy in Italy.

 

That’s not the most concerning part.

 

.0014 = .14%

 

Which is similar to flu numbers. Im not saying its like the flu. Im saying the italian dudes estimated numbers line up closer to flu number.
Thats all. Not in the mood to martyr up this morning. Its too nice outside.

 

If that is the case, then this thing is obviously far more contagious than the flu and perhaps on par with older diseases for which we have a lot of herd immunity, such as measles. So that 10 million could climb to 200 million. And at that death rate, that would be 280,000 deaths. more than a quarter million, and higher than what Fauci thinks we are locked into right now even with all the measures: 100k to 200k deaths.

 

I promise, no one thinks you are a martyr.

 

Or a mather.

 

Now enjoying the homeschool parents getting mad people are using the word homeschool to described the current predicament.

 

Self pace math freshman year didnt prep me well. Then in stats class, we were allowed to use one sheet of paper and write down formulas to help with tests. I could write small and fit every answer on the sheet. None of it made sense in my brain anyway. I blame the system

 

So it's either more contagious than flu with equal death rate, or less contagious than flu with higher death rate.

I see no positives from either scenario.

 

I was just trying to clear up the confusion on the .0014% vs. .14%.

 

Im trying to look at everything. I mean if italy is claiming 140k cases and there is a chance 10 million plus really have it, itd be a pretty huge topic. This dude could also be loony.

 

Yes, but not .0014%.

 

There are absolutely a large number of unrecorded cases. Now, how large is large? 10 million cases? Seems high given how long it’s been there but I would need to see their testing rates and what percent have been positive. Over a million. Could be. A few million - I don’t know enough about it to say no. Tens of millions? Doesn’t seem like it.

There are also many unrecorded deaths. Go read the articles - nursing homes all over the place recording 20+, 30+ deaths each without any of the dead being given a CV test.

Based on typical death rates this time of year vs recent death rates, the recorded death rates are probably about 2x too low.

If you assume 2 million people have it and there have been 30,000 deaths, then that would be a 1.5% death rate. That doesn’t feel too high considering the slew of their population and the overwhelmed system. Actually might even be low if they were letting that many just die in nursing homes.

As for the poll - it’s going to skew high I think. Just look at how many people who have flu-like symptoms in this country (or a fever and a cough at the least) and are returning negatives on CV tests. I personally know four people that have gotten tests due to symptoms and none of them had it. Those are the only four that I personally talk to who have been tested. And with 10-15% positive test rates that anecdotal evidence doesn’t seem so far-fetched. But if you polled them, at least a few would have said yes I had it if testing had not been available.

There’s decent evidence to support an inherent mortality rate of 0.5%-1% with current treatment options. There’s also decent evidence to support that there are a decent number of undiagnosed cases. Dr. Birx spoke to this in one of the briefings. They are having a hard time with the models because there are too many deaths. Either this thing has a higher mortality rate than we think or this spreads faster than we thought (higher number of undiagnosed cases).

 

Worldometers now has total tests and tests per 1M displayed on a country by country basis.

 

Wow, we are way behind on testing relative to most peer countries.

 

"If you assume 2 million people have it and there have been 30,000 deaths, then that would be a 1.5% death rate."
TT - not trying to be picky but I would look at it this way ...
If you assume 2,030,000 people had it, 2,000,000 recover and there have been 30,000 deaths, then that would be a 1.5% death rate.