He's not. I didn't get it either, but I do now. When he went for 2, he was assuming a 100% xp rate and a 50% 2pt rate. He ended up in the bad 25% chance of missing both and still was in position to win with 16 seconds left. Had he gotten the first one (50/50) then they could kick a field goal to win it in that same situation. That's what he was allowing a 25% chance for at the expense of potentially being in a position to tie with a fg if everything else went the same way. It's debatable, but legitimate strategy if you are not wanting to play for OT.
It's cute that you think that bat shit crazy bastard put that much thought into it. I'm guessing his chart was: 2 PTS > 1 PT
All I know is down 17, the Florida band played the Gator chomp and I was one of about 80000 tennessee fans doing it and I've never felt more alive. Wanted to do that for over 20 years.