The Indy Talks To Himself (NBA) Thread.

Also, for all the talk about Phoenix's last 10 games being the toughest final stretch in like, the last 30 years, they've been incredibly fortunate so far:

11th game was against the Spurs without Wemby (somehow managed to lose anyway)
10th was against the Nuggets with no Jamal Murray
9th was against OKC with no Shai (somehow managed to lose anyway)
8th was against New Orleans with no Ingram
7th is Wednesday against Cleveland with Donovan Mitchell 2 games back off injury and having scored less than 15 in both of those games
6th will be Minnesota with no KAT
5th will be New Orleans with no Ingram
4th and 3rd will be Clippers, who have looked atrocious. Not sure if Russ will be back by then.
2nd is Sacramento (first one with no injury issues)
Last game against Minnesota with possibly no KAT

Kind of crazy to have 10 out of 11 games down the stretch potentially impacted by injury/guys out in some form or fashion. Kind of takes away from the "toughest stretch in 30 years" talk, imo.

 

https://x.com/reneemontgomery/status/1775362565347901486?s=46&t=-g4-4SHxx6dZ80rS7hnjTA

 

If you haven't watched Wemby yet, you've got 6 games left to say you saw him play his rookie year. Do yourself a favor and make it happen.

The kid flirted with a quadruple double in a close game against the Nuggets last night. 1 block and 2 assists away from it. You can see multiple blocks in the tweet above. There were questions early in the season about whether Chet would take Rookie of the Year from him, but there's no question now. He's even got people saying he deserves to be DPOY. If he stays healthy, his ceiling is best player of all time. Definitely worth the watch.

 

It's crazy how much better the West is this season (or how much worse the East is) compared to last season. Lakers are sitting at 43 wins with 6 games left to play. 43 wins got them the 8 seed in the play-in and let them secure the 7 through that game. They're currently sitting at the 9 and probably need some help to get any higher... with SIX games left.

The East 2 seed (Bucks) is 12 games back from the East 1 seed (Celtics). The West 10 seed (Warriors) is 11.5 games back of the West 1 seed (Nuggets). The East 10 seed is 24 games back from the Celtics, for [uck fay] sake.

Just wild.

 

This is more about the Celtics being the best team in the NBA than proof the East is "bad"

 

I can see why you think that, but I disagree with you.

The Thunder are 19-8 against the East
The Wolves are 17-11 against the East
Clippers are 20-9
Hell, even the 9-seed Lakers are 19-10 and 10-seed Warriors are 20-10 against the East

The 2-seed Bucks are 15-14 against the West this year.
The 4-seed Magic are 15-14 against the West this year.
5-seed Knicks are 14-15
The 6-seed Heat are 13-15

Some of it is injuries. Obviously Philly has been without Embiid for a huge chunk of the season. They were phenomenal before he went out and terrible after. They'd be the 2 if he never got hurt, and would probably be closer to Boston than the Bucks are. Could probably say something similar, but to a lesser degree, for the Knicks. Outside of that, though, the East has just not been very good this year.

Ask yourself this - who are you taking in a 7 game series between the 9 seed Lakers / 10 seed Warriors vs the 3 seed Cavs? Vs the 4 seed Magic? If you look at teams' records against top competition, there's a case to be made that the Lakers are a better team than the damn Bucks.

If you took any West team 4-10 and plugged them into the East this season, there's little doubt in my mind that they'd lock down the 4 seed, at minimum, and probably push for the 2 or 3.

 

Man said there’s an argument the Lakers are better than the Bucks lolol, most delusional fanbase in sports

 

Brother, have you watched the Bucks this season? They a top 2-3 player in the league and might figure it out come playoff time, but they have not looked good this season. The case for Lakers being better than Bucks is not even that hard to make:

Over the last 10 games:

• Bucks 5-5
• Lakers 8-2

Over the last 20 games:

• Bucks 12-8
• Lakers 14-6

Over the last 30 games:

• Bucks 15-15
• Lakers 20-10

Over the last 40 games:

• Bucks 22-18
• Lakers 26-14

Over the last 50 games

• Bucks 28-22
• Lakers 29-21

Lakers have a better record in the last 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 games.

Head to head, the Lakers are 2-0 against the Bucks this season, both without LeBron, and one of those wins came on the road. Dame and Giannis played in both, and Middleton even played in one of them.

Similar records against .500 or better teams. Heard on a podcast the other day that the Lakers have 17 wins (most in the NBA) and a 55% win percentage (5th best in the league) against the top 10 teams in the NBA in point differential. Bucks are ranked similarly, but that doesn't really push against my argument.

Switch the Lakers to the East, and the Bucks to the West, and there's a good chance they just flip records. Bucks are 10-1 against Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington (3 worst teams in the league), while the Lakers are 6-0. The 3 win difference between the two teams is basically just the difference in strength of schedule.

 

I wish just once you could be concise without vomiting 7 paragraphs. The Bucks have been plenty shaky, and they’ve also been better than the Lakers and their +0.4 scoring margin per game. The Lakers haven’t been a top 10 team at all lol, they are a middling team in either conference as their fans talk about them like they’re a contender. They’ll have to win 2 elimination games just to get destroyed by the Nuggets, and then we won’t have to hear these homer narratives for another 6 months

 

By point differential the Lakers are 19th in the NBA, just ahead of the Trae Young-less Hawks, but they’d be a top-2 seed if only they weren’t victimized by conference alignment. Very sane take.

 

Sorry - it's hard to be concise when there is so much evidence that supports my stance.

What part of "better record in the last 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 games" is a "homer narrative?" 50 games is a massive [uck fay]ing sample size.

It's not a foregone conclusion that they'll be the 9. They're only a game back from the Kings (more like 2, if you consider the tiebreaker), who still have to play @New York and @Boston on a back to back, @OKC, and then home against New Orleans and Phoenix, who are both fighting to stay out of the play in. And they're only a game and a half back from New Orleans, who they play in the last game of the season, and who's on a 3 game skid with Brandon Ingram out injured. And they've still got @ Phoenix, then @Sacramento and @GSW on a back to back, all before finishing the season with the Lakers.

Not all that unrealistic to think that either of those teams could drop to the 9. Hell, even Phoenix is still at risk, though they've looked much better of late.

There's also no guarantee that the Nuggets will get the 1 seed. Lakers would probably love to see the 1 seeded OKC Thunder in the first round.

 

You can't see how judging a team like the Lakers, whose 2nd best player is [uck fay]ing ancient, based on point differential might not make a ton of sense? Care for a little history lesson?

The Lakers are currently +0.4 and ranked 19th in point differential this season. Where do you think they finished last regular season, just before going on their Conference Finals run despite LeBron being hobbled? 16th and +0.6 (aka, basically the same [uck fay]ing spot).

But even if we agree that judging them solely by point differential does make sense, how's their point differential look if you cut out the 3-10 stretch after the play in (back in [uck fay]ing December)? It bumps up to +1.7.

What if you look at it over the last 10 games? It's +6.7 (Bucks are +3.3).

What if you look at it over the last 20 games? It's +3.0 (Bucks are +3.4).

And again, the Lakers have 17 wins against the top 10 teams on that list.

The gap between the Bucks and Lakers in a 7-game playoff series is not as large as you seem to want to believe. Both teams are top heavy. Neither team can defend the perimeter. Giannis is better than LeBron, but AD is better than Dame, which probably balances it out.

 

Another fun fact - the Miami Heat, who approach the regular season similarly to the way LeBron and the Lakers approach it, finished 21st in point differential last season a -0.3. They went on to beat the Boston Celtics, who finished 1st at +6.5, in the Conference Finals.

 

Western Conference play-in race injuries of note:

• Kings:
  • Kevin Huerter - started 59 games - out for season
  • Malik Monk - 6th man of the year candidate - out 4-6 weeks
• Pelicans:
  • Zion - day-to-day with a finger injury
  • Brandon Ingram - could come back late next week (estimated return date of 4/12, the second to last game of the season)
  • Jose Alvarado - 18 mpg off the bench - GTD for tomorrow
  • Larry Nance jr. - 20 mpg off the bench - GTD for tomorrow
    
• Lakers (both of these guys have been out for months):
  • Gabe Vincent - rotation player - working back into game shape
  • Jarred Vanderbilt - fringe starter - will be re-evaluated next week (they need his perimeter defense)
    
• Clippers (probably safe from play in, but who knows?):
  • Kawhi - Likely out until at least Tuesday. That means he will likely miss at least 3 of their remaining 7 games.
• GSW:
  • Kuminga is questionable tonight against the Rockets (the team they're trying to hold off for 10th place)

 

https://x.com/evanhabrams/status/1776437755234390370?s=46&t=-g4-4SHxx6dZ80rS7hnjTA

 

The more I think about it, if I’m LeBron, and my main goal is still winning at the highest level, I’m getting my ass out of the West and going back east, and for so many reasons:

• The West is just so stacked right now
  • Lakers are 11 games about .500 and only the 9 seed.
  • Denver is the best team in the league until proven otherwise

• The West will probably be even better next season:
  • Wemby is a potential top 10 player next season, and the Spurs could acquire another player to help
  • The Grizzlies should come back at full strength and be a contender
  • New Orleans has hit a stride with Zion
  • The Thunder are young and have a lot of options for moves they can make

• The East is a joke by comparison
  • The Celtics are good but haven’t shown they can get over the hump
  • No one seems interested in solidifying themselves in second place.

• There are multiple SOLID options:
  • He could go back to Cleveland. They’re the 3 and flirting with the 2. Maybe Bronny goes to OSU, so he’s close. And obviously Bron has the connection with the team that drafted him.
  • He could go to Philly. Pairs him with an MVP level guy in Embiid and a young rising star in Maxey.
  • He could go to the Knicks. Puts him in another huge market. MSG. Some good defensive pieces around him.
  • Any of those teams is a bonafide title contender if he joins.

Idk if/how the money works with all of those teams, but with his player option, I think he could sign with any of them for whatever he wanted to make it work. Seems like common sense if winning another title is his number 1 goal.

 

Seems worth noting that the Lakers would be 1 win behind the Bucks if the league would have counted the IST championship in the standings (like they did every other IST game).

 

lol, holy shit. Dude is an absolute clown.

https://x.com/isaaclharris/status/1777569283783917985?s=46&t=-g4-4SHxx6dZ80rS7hnjTA

 

Decided to play some NBA fantasy this year. It's a happy medium between football and baseball in terms of upkeep, and definitely kept my interest in the games/players throughout the season.

 

@Indy Rate my lineup. Playoff/Championship week lineup was a bit different than usual cause of injuries, but I adjusted. Because I don't make excuses: