POLITICS 2020 Election

Discussion in 'Politicants' started by CardinalVol, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. emainvol

    emainvol Administrator

    Say what you will about polling, but the debate and the diagnosis don't appear to have helped him. He's gonna need turnout to be lower than it appears it's going to be, or for there to be about 3x the polling error there was in 2016
     
  2. emainvol

    emainvol Administrator

    Oh and Cook moved SC Senate race to Toss Up

    Jamie Harrison is a great candidate and Graham sucks, but I did not at all expect that to even give the appearance of being in play.
     
  3. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    Will be curious to see how the polling plays out.

    A new study on it showed independents and republicans both being 10-12% unlikely to tell who they’re really voting for.
     
  4. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Put Custom Title Here

    Why? I mean, if you know, and you are not ashamed of it, why? Now, if you don't know, that is fine, but if you do and you then lie about it, to what end?
     
  5. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    where could I read this?
     
  6. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator


    they didn’t trust that the information would stay private and didn’t think it was safe to support a candidate that’s not democratic
     
    zehr27 likes this.
  7. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    Cloud research 2020 poll respondent honesty
     
  8. emainvol

    emainvol Administrator

    https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

    A few things

    1) 5 percent of Dems also said they would be reluctant to disclose who they are voting for
    2) The question is only about phone polls (we have some high quality online polling now, and it tends to track pretty closely with phone polling, this poll was an online one).
    3) I'd like to see this on a state level rather than national (i.e. is a Tennesseean more or less likely than a Pennsylvanian to respond truthfully) and I'd also like to see whether these folks are simply less likely to participate in an IVR at all.

    In all, I think that (in general) pollsters have gotten better with weighting. It wasn't so much shy voters that threw the polls off by a couple points in 2016, it was a near universal underweighting of non-college educated whites.
     
  9. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Put Custom Title Here

    I don't understand this mentality. Are they so caught up in bogeyman syndrome that they are paranoid?

    It seems like some kind of martyr complex to me. I just find it bizarre. You are the ruling party, you have the President in the White House already. You are the people in charge. You cannot play the oppressed role, it just doesn't make sense.

    I would like to see a geographic break down of where these people live that are afraid to express themselves. Surely they don't live in a state like Tennessee.

    EDIT: Emain expressed it far better than me. I guess I just get confused by people when they lie about stuff like this. It's like lying to your doctor, it just doesn't make sense.
     
  10. zehr27

    zehr27 8th's VIP

    Agreed. At this point I think it takes a huge close on debates and low turn out for him to have a shot. Right now I think Biden easily wins.
     
  11. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    how did they figure out who was supporting who, if the people are saying they are reluctant to give honest answers? (I have read the study press release before, it doesn't say)
     
  12. emainvol

    emainvol Administrator

    I think that people that generally distrust phone pollsters enough to lie to them are generally less likely to talk to them in the first place. That's just speculation on my part though.
     
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  13. zehr27

    zehr27 8th's VIP

    "The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business. Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!"


    "If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?"
     
  14. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Put Custom Title Here

    It just chaps my ass that our whole Presidential election comes down to these "shy voters" in 4 or 5 states and the rest of us be damned.
     
  15. emainvol

    emainvol Administrator

    See that's the thing, this was an online survey, so I don't know if they are hypothesizing that people are more likely to be honest on an online poll? I would think if you are scared that a phone pollster is going to record you and somehow use that against you (which is utterly insane) you probably have the same or bigger fear of an online pollster.
     
  16. emainvol

    emainvol Administrator

    Half-assing a walk back. I really don't know how the GOP deals with it. The damage was already done.
     
  17. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Put Custom Title Here

    Man, that would never happen. Both sides will staple all kinds of shit onto a bill. Other than simple "Make this Pie Day" resolutions, I doubt there are any bills that are this straight forward. Just posturing and he knows it is empty.

    All part of the dumb ass game played on the Hill.
     
  18. emainvol

    emainvol Administrator

    Well, again, I think the "shy voter" phenomenon is more easily explained as a "systemic weighting error of a particular low-turnout group that actually voted"

    And the thing is, you can't predict those things. Like, what happens if turnout amongst black voters is say, 65 percent this time around? My guess is these likely voter models are not counting on that, so it could easily be 2-3 points the other way this time.
     
  19. zehr27

    zehr27 8th's VIP

    I think McConnell told him to focus on the SCOTUS nomination and once Trump realized how bad that played he walked it back. My gut tells me McConnell thinks they are likely to lose the senate so he wants to get the things done that mean most to him and as fast as possible.
     
  20. zehr27

    zehr27 8th's VIP

    Its pretty dumb that we can't even get something this simple done and our leaders know it. That is the sad part to me.
     
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