we are five months past this getting contained without a vaccine under any workable circumstances. it is why the slow rollout of tests and states all doing their own thing in May was so devastating. I imagine it is naturalized at this point
Texas already broke its vote record. I'm really curious to see the age demographics of who votes on election day.
he's going to "listen to the scientists" whatever that means. i fully believe he will shut down the country to try to prove a point.
i have a buddy who works for the california republican party and he claims new registrations are heavy republican and that republicans won't vote early and is predicting a trump victory. not sure if that's worth anything, but i thought i'd share.
I’d rather have four more years of Trump than a narrow Biden win. The only short term hope for this country is a massive blue wave that forces the elephants to pack it in and go home. If Biden wins states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona by a wide margin, perhaps the GOP as we know it will collapse and give way to two parties, the progressives and the conservative democratic party. This would roughly put us on par with the rest of the developed world. However, a thin margin of victory for Biden will confirm that too many of us are too irredeemably brainwashed and/or downright retarded to learn a lesson from anything or effect any change. Business as usual will continue indefinitely and the liberals will keep promoting solutions that work within the framework of a terminally ill system. The only prayer at that point is further damage via a figure like Trump who finally causes enough destruction to rouse the people to revolution.
Well, Biden isn’t going to win Texas, Georgia, and (most likely) Arizona by a wide margin. So, time to pack it in I guess.
What happens if the polls are off and the GOP wins? Does that mean the progressives should just pack it up and let the moderates and republicans run things
he doesn’t think he is winning California, but he told me I’ll be shocked about how close it will be and I laughed
I think when you work close to that stuff, your perspective can et galvanized because you have so much information from one perspective that you forget that the other side has a whole stream of information that they are operating on and expecting the same results for themselves. I know people who were sure McCain was going to win, Romney was going to win, and H. Clinton was going to win. I don't think they knew much less than the people who thought the opposite in those elections. It's [uck fay]ing close in this country. The difference is a small fraction of who doesn't show up to vote at all.
He has stated that he will not. Even if you don't believe him, he's directly stated the contrary. And I think most scientists think (or at least many) we are well past the point of shutdowns having much effect.
Polls could be right and Biden still lose. With polling margin and undecideds, Biden could easily lose FL, PA, AZ, NC, and GA. If he loses MN, WI, or MI then I’d say that’s a failure of those polls. The reason Biden’s odds aren’t high is because if the polls aren’t wildly wrong (Trump wins WI, MI, etc) is that Biden likely only needs one from that list of FL, PA, AZ, NC, and GA. Systematic polling error everywhere within standard margin of error therefore gives Trump not unreasonable odds. 538 has it at something like 15%. But a lot of that is because of Biden’s wider edge in PA. If polling there ends up being off and Trump wins it - it’s an absolute toss-up or even Trump edge.
