Lots of plans already being made for a winter\spring season. There will be football, just a matter of when.
So what happens when we trot these players out there to play the season having not gotten to do Spring practice and some poor kid gets Jason Streeted and then sues the NCAA or his college for forcing him to play football with inadequate training?
I’ve been living around COVID-19 for several weeks and driving cars for several decades and neither has killed me, therefore there is a 0% chance for both.
If there are that many that have had it that would be there, then we're done. US could have about 500k deaths or more and we'll be at herd immunity. Let's play ball.
That question depends on how old he is. But, let's assume 35-45. The death rate (from Lancet) is estimated to be 0.12% for this age range. Let's say it is at least 0.08%. So, let's assume there is a 10% chance he gets CV in the next 4 months and his odds of dying are 0.08%, so total odds of death are 0.008%. Given that he is a medical worker his chances of getting CV are likely higher if we are fully reopened - but let's keep this a lower-bound estimate. Now, let's look at car accidents. US auto fatality rate is 12.4 deaths / 100,000 population each year (or 0.012%). But, that is over a full year. So, converting that to the probability over 4 months it becomes 4.1 deaths/100000 population or 0.004%. I would argue he is at least twice as likely to die of CV as he is to die in a car accident over the next 4 months, assuming we all go back to contacting each other.
Be a smartass as you wish, but ive posted links that repeated what i posted about "guesses" due to nobody knowing the numbers of those infected, if cv really killed them, etc. Links from highly educated people in their field. Let me keep it simple regarding the question i posed since you couldnt answer. If 400 people in TN have died in car accidents year to date vs 180 from CV, do the math on which one has killed more in your age range.
180 people out of 10,000 have died. Let's assume that Tennessee is like NY and only about 10% of the cases are confirmed. So that's 180 people (this number is probably higher but I won't inflate it to count those that died without testing positive first) out of 100,000. Looking deeper (I'll go with 40-49 year olds here), there have been 10 deaths in 1,592 cases. Or 10 deaths out of 15,920 infection if we assume 1:10 ratio. That is 63 deaths per 100,000 of population. And if there is a 10% chance that he gets CV in the next four months assuming we open things back up (low-side for someone in medical field) that is a 6.3 / 100,000 chance of dying. Compare that to the 4.1 / 100,000 chance of dying over the same period from a car accident. This number falls dramatically for the 30-39 window. It is more like 1.2 / 100,000 chance of dying from CV (assuming a 10% chance of getting it). The issue with the comparison you made is 1) You have to divide the number of deaths per day by the day-average number of people on Tennessee roads. Because of two major interstates cutting through the state, that number is higher than the population of Tennesseans on the roads - once you do that you get the risk of dying in a car accident in Tennessee on any given day, 2) You then need to do the math to convert that risk of dying any day to the risk of dying somewhere in a 4 month period, 3) You then have to account for the the fact that the first CV death occurred on March 20th, so roughly 5 weeks ago when you compare raw numbers to raw numbers and then realize perhaps it isn't the best comparison; so 4) you then need to make some assumption about the risk of getting CV over a 4 month period if everyone is going about their normal routine (which we were doing for a very short time while CV really circulating around the state). When you do all that, then make your case.
