COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Bill Gates commenting on the model that scared government officials to death. Quite possibly the most optimistic piece of information I've seen yet. No numbers here, but dropping worst case scenarios out of the equation is a great step.

"Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their “shut down” and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this.

One tool that is helping us is looking at the genetics of the virus to understand the tree of infection."

 

Maybe its not as bad as feared but we will never go to the lengths China did to contain. So I'm not sure China is the best country to base our models on.

 

Hold up, bro. I’m about to hit this beer bong right after 30 other people used it. Spring break!

 

I'm still concerned we are about to see a spike still.

 

Then go home and kiss your grandma.

 

We will definitely have an initial spike of cases/deaths. I'm getting a little more optimistic that we won't have as severe second and third waves as we feared after we phase out the mitigation steps.

 

we'll zoom to around 100k, then we will hopefully start slowing

 

I'm glad we kicked the British's ass when we did

 

I still think we're going to blow that out of the water. Just don't think we've taken enough precautions individually as a whole.

 

Where did kmf get that sweet green hat?

 

@kmf600

Find him, drag him by to the truck, take it as high as it will go, and then drop him on his head.

 

He knows HE is in that 3.4%, right? I mean, look at him. He isn't 45.

The ONLY way he makes sense is if shutting down the country kills more people that the virus would if we didn't, and I just don't think that is remotely possible.

 

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No you flaming [uck fay]ing twatwaffle. ONLY 3.4% would be kind of devastating, no? Also, if the hospitals are crippled and completely overran with sick people - even if most of them would eventually recover - would likely contribute to more people dying that doesn't need to. And God forbid someone have a heart attack, stroke, car accident that needs a trauma unit, etc.

Well, John just flipped his pickup and has broken both legs, his back, and needs hundreds of stitches. "[uck fay] him, he shouldn't have been driving."

 

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Test takes six days to get results. Spring break ends this weekend. Spike is coming.