COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

So....exactly what everyone has been saying around the world for a little while

 

New York had to reach a saturation point soon enough. They are going to have a lot of deaths over the next week or so. My concern now is when outside areas are going to start showing their rise in cases and fatalities, some of which already are.

 

A model that I am beginning to like suggests NY has been at peak new cases/day for the last 2 weeks and is starting to fall which means active cases are falling.

But that same model sees total cases rising from about 2.5 MM in the US today to 7 MM by the end of the month (and of peaking) WITH effective motivation continuing (meaning light lockdown, which is how they describe what we are doing). I think they begin to peak new cases per day in May but on log plots it’s hard to tell.

Based on this, I think it would roughly mean we would hit the 50,000 death mark by mid-May. I can’t tell how they have it progressing from there. Moving from about 1000 deaths a day now toward 2000 deaths per day if we maintain light lockdown.

 

Here's a comic from January 2018 that, uh, feels like it could have been drawn today: https://thenib.com/america-ready-pandemic/

 

That's pneumonia and flu. Obviously flu is getting hammered really well by the social distancing.

 

I got confirmation from my friend that works at our local hospital. He said there is a refrigerated truck parked outside the hospital that they've been putting the covid bodies in. He says they're not reporting them in the official death toll yet. He only knows of 2 that he is 100% that died from complications of covid

 

Is this reliable?

https://www.wate.com/health/coronav...ocial&utm_source=facebook_WATE_6_On_Your_Side

 

Yup that's based on the Univ of Washington model that state and local govts have been referencing. Some of the massive hospitalization numbers got revised down.

 

The report is correct.

The accuracy of the model is questionable however a total deaths level of 80k doesn’t seem too far off from the model I mentioned above. Though I’m extrapolating there to get that number from the other model because they don’t project out to August like IHME does.

 

Here's the site where the graph comes from: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Some pretty damning tweets have been bumped from medical advisers in New York. Stuff about not needing to change your routine and to go out and enjoy the city.

 

Interesting twitter thread. For those wondering if the numbers are being overestimated, consider this (got to go read the thread):

 

It’s also worth noting I don’t think they’re at their final saturation point - but the saturation point relative to their current social distancing efforts. Meaning how/when they let off the gas on those, active cases could rise again.

Deaths probably trail reported cases by two weeks. It seems from onset to death is about 17-18 days. If you assume there is a few day delay after onset before testing and several days delay between testing and confirmed positive, then you are at about a 12-13 day delay of deaths behind a reported new cases peak. Assuming no treatment changes in the interim.

 

As much as I got frustrated for what I perceived to be Trump dragging his ass on this, Bill de Blasio REALLY [uck fay]ed this one up.

You have to try and be cautious going back and judging people in hindsight, but holyyyyy shit he probably made it so much worse.

 

That's one of the guys saying we should all be out celebrating Chinese New Year. Now he's saying they might turn Central Park into a cemetery. Oops.

 

He makes Trump seem cautious

 

What was the President saying on February 9th?

 

Probably making fun of Joe Biden if I had to guess.

As far as death count inaccuracies, this guy is saying hundreds of New Yorkers are dying in their homes every day and not getting added to the COVID-19 even though most of them are certainly due to that.

 

Two wrongs.