COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

This is interesting because I'm about to have to travel a shit ton for work. I'm looking forward to it because my 3 May flights I just booked each has less than 10 other people on the plane with me.

 

I don't know what is acceptable, the cows are out of the barn at this point either way. I do not believe we have the ability to shutdown for much longer. like I don't have the ability to hold my breath for 5 minutes. people wont do it.

 

I agree with this. Ebola virus may have a significantly higher death rate, but it's relative level of effect on our society would be limited by its virulence and ability to spread through a higher number of people.

In the end, it's going to be how many people feel comfortable dying vs. the hit to their bank account and the most honest answer will most often be, as usual, "as long as it isn't me".

 

Well if I knew there were only going to be a few on the plane, I'd go.

 

The bolded, underlined above is why people on here call you a dumbass, repeatedly. You create situations and occurrences in your head, like this one, that I'm "scared shitless," and then try to run with them as if they are reality.

I'm not scared shitless of the virus. I call on hospitals in the Baltimore, DC, and Delaware area and am probably more likely than most to have already been exposed to the damn thing a while ago.

The only thing I've said this entire time is that you can't put a ton of stock in the conclusions these doctors have made because their methodology for reaching those conclusions is extremely flawed. If you have other, more reputable and correct opinions, methods, and studies that have led you to similar conclusions, then so be it. But when you ask me what these two people, specifically, are wrong about, and I tell you what they are wrong about, don't give me a bunch of other outside bull shit that has no impact on the fact that they way these guys reached their conclusions makes no [uck fay]ing sense whatsoever.

 

Cow has been out of the barn for a while though.

I think we're eventually going to have to face it though and that the shelter in place stuff is approaching a point of negative returns

 

Ya, I think that is true. And I guess what I meant about the cows is that we will be accepting the number no matter what it is because it's coming.

But the negative returns vs containing the virus are two different things. Is it going to be contained now? Seems very unlikely. Are the shutdowns helping? Yes, the data suggests they are helping. Can we stay shut down much longer? Nope.

We are about out of shutdown juice, and will have to get by with other strategies. And even reopened, this will remain an economic issue as well as a public health one because people's behaviors are obviously going to be altered. This is just one of those "low annual probability yet virtually certain eventually" type global events that we have to try to be vigilant of.

 

But are their conclusions wrong indy..
And you dont know. Nobody does so stop acting like you do. Find fault with their process, fine, but you are clueless as to how their conclusions will line up with reality. We all are right now. You cant think for yourself and give an answer, so you go off on a tangent about methodology and how conclusion doesnt matter if how they got their is flawed. The end result always matters and thats what i asked what they were wrong about. TT gave his opinion. You seem to be incapable. If i wanted a methodology lesson i would asked questions about their data collection and process but i didnt.
The conclusion is the conclusion and those 2 dudes will either be right or wrong or heavily leaning one direction, regardless if their method is flawed. I was interested to see who else was stupid and dangerous and thought more in line with them, or who is more inclined to roll with what china., the govt and media have put out there.

 

You must like magic shows.

 

Even following a line of reasoning that they end up being right - it won't be because of the numbers they gave, because using those numbers in the way they did is incorrect. So, the message can be delivered (and I've listened to a lot of messages that have a range of outcomes) - but I don't care to hear these guys deliver those conclusions because invalid by methodology.

 

Wait, what China has put out there? China said in December and January is what you're saying now. Look it up. That's part of how it got all over the damn place.

 

Fair. But seems like your conclusions line up more with theirs than others.

 

https://www.stress.org/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-severely-overreacting-to-coronavirus

My opinion aligns with this. If you disagree, i have no problem with it.

 

I haven't seen anyone disagree with the key points he has been making (note that this link is to a reporting on his articles, which are longer and have more content): we can't shut down forever and there are economic ramifications that must be considered. And that we don't have a lot of data yet.

 

Dr. Birx has said for a long time that either this thing kills way more people than we realize or there are a lot more people that have it than we are counting. Otherwise you can't make sense of the data. And I think her conclusion is absolutely that there are more cases than we are counting.

It depends on whose conclusions you are talking about.

These guys annoyed the hell out of me. It reminded me of the classic puzzle:

3 men go into a hotel. The man behind the desk says a room is $30 so each man pays $10 and goes to the room.

A while later the man behind the desk realized the room was only $25 so he sent the bellboy to the 3 guys' room with $5. On the way the bellboy couldn't figure out how to split $5 evenly between 3 men, so he gave each man a $1 and kept the other $2 for himself.

This meant that the 3 men each paid $9 for the room, which is a total of $27 add the $2 that the bellboy kept = $29. Where is the other dollar?​

The problem throws a lot of numbers at you, states them as fact, and then throws a conclusion at the end that re-frames the question in an illogical way. But because they present the conclusion in the last sentence so matter of factly, you take it as fact given all the numbers, and you too are confused at where the extra $1 is. "something doesn't add up...i'm being duped here"

And that's basically what these guys are doing. They put on scrubs, throw a bunch of numbers out in ways they shouldn't be used, and then after drowning you in numbers to exert themselves as authorities, they push "the obvious" conclusion.

It's a tactic.

 

Death rates of 0.1%-1% are all possible in my opinion, so I don't disagree with him there.

The questions are - how many people are hospitalized per person that dies. And, how fast does it spread. This is a novel virus for which no one (as of a few months ago) had no known natural immunity. It also seems to have high transmissibility. This means it can rip through populations. If it has a death rate of .6% and 70% of the population gets it before we establish herd immunity, then in the US 320MM x .7 x .006 = 1.3 MM deaths. And given how fast 25% of NYC got it, I think its fair to say we would see that inside a year. If it is .1, then that number looks more like 200k deaths. Now I don't know how you feel, but those numbers feel very different to me. We're trying to learn more about which one is more likely - but the NY state antibody testing suggested it's more like 0.6.

 

For a short break of mental fisticuffs (Indy v Ssmiff) - here's some state data for this week

Some specific county data



This week's State data

The Tennessee 3-Step, one step forward, two steps back
Highest number of new cases this week since the beginning of time
Testing ramped this week so Total Cases increased more than previous weeks, duh
Prison System testing appeared to increase this week (ie, Bledsoe, Lake, Lauderdale, Hickman, Trousdale)
Data is only as good as you think it is, unless it's all you've got

 

So you are done eating out and flying to go to say, Colorado?

 

I've been out 7 times in the last 6 weeks that involved a car ride (ride bikes with the kids around the neighborhood every day), 3 of which involved going to church with 5-6 other people to do media for our livestream. Don't really have cabin fever. I'm not going to race out to a restaurant. I'm feeling pretty good - lost 10 pounds from eating at home so much vs. eating out. I'm not saying I won't go out because I'm sure I will, but I don't feel the need to rush out. As far as planes, it'll be different. I know my company is going to adjust our commercial air travel plans. There are going to be a lot less flights when this is done - so there's actually a chance it will be more expensive for personal travel, which is a little counter-intuitive. We'll see.