COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

we probably have close to a million a day currently getting it since they think we’re only catching a small chunk of it and numbers are at least 10x’s higher

 

How long do you think we have been at around a million a day? You've been saying stuff like this since April or May, or about 150 days ago. I admittedly am a Doomer on all things as I am risk averse. I get that. But if we are at a million a day, this thing should be winding down in the next few months. Are you saying it will be winding down by February or March?

 

yeah the public antibody tests don’t really support that. Isn’t even New York City only at 10 percent?

 

I strongly believe the 10x infections vs cases applied to March/April, not today.

 

NYC was at 20% in May I thought.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit a million a day in late July/August.

I don’t know if it’s staying consistent but it expanding into the west and Midwest plus the seasonality increase probably has us close to those levels currently

 

I don’t know if you include school students that are probably getting the virus but not showing signs or being contagious.

they also just done a study that shows keeping schools open lowers community COVID deaths. So there seems to be a correlation between the low risk spread of school children providing community benefits to those at risk.

 

Given less than a third of students are actually in school I think that challenges the hypothesis. But possible if you are now missing this whole new class of infections.

I think asymptomatic kids just aren’t very efficient spreaders most of the year so they could almost be subtracted out of the equation altogether. However, asymptomatic kids with colds and seasonal allergies might be. Which is why winter poses so many challenges.

 

Here's an illustration why locking down specific places doesn't work. France has repeated Italy's mistake in March:

 

What ever happened to this?

 

I was looking at covid death likelihoods by age alongside some actuarial tables. Roughly speaking, having covid in a given year will double the likelihood of death for any individual, regardless of age, if you throw out car wrecks.

 

That's an interesting way of framing it I have not heard, but sounds believable to me. We are about to have a very hard holiday season. Shit's going to get Oregon Trail-like for some families. IMO, hope I am wrong.

 

Yeah I don't if it will be that dire, but I do think we are about to get to the worst part.

 

Dire for me or you? Odds are no. But it is going to take some folks. A Neyland Stadium's worth over the next two or 3 months.

 

I don’t think we’ll get to early spring levels at all.

 

this will is the third time cases shot up and people naysayed deaths because they aren't happening immediately. they lag.

 

They lag and they will seasonally go up like every winter but they’re not going to to do what they did in the spring.


Cases have been up since the middle of September now. Mostly due to seasonality of the virus, the west and Midwestern states getting their wave now, and the increase in testing.

The new deaths rising the national average is coming mostly from the new areas being hit and the vulnerable to the disease dying before Farr’s law takes effect.

Areas of the country that have already been hit hard aren’t seeing this dramatic rise in deaths.

We’re still under Farr’s law on this we just have had three bumps to it due to the size of America and geographical areas getting hit in different times.

 

it is not the increase in testing because the positive rate is also rising. This broken record of dismissal is how we got here.

 

Its a virus and was always going to run its course. Masks, stay at home, whatever. Didnt matter. People are either gonna get it and do ok, not do ok, die, already had it or get vaccinated
When, not if.

 

so you ignore me saying the virus expanding into an area that hadn’t experienced wide spread community spread of the virus and the seasonality bump on top of the increased testing is the rise.

go to 7 day tracker and look at deaths. The western and Midwest are driving the bump in deaths.

The south and north east are following Farr’s law.