COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

I do admit I ignored it when you said deaths go up every winter, like Covid-19 is not a novel virus and we are not currently in a pandemic.

 

Okay so basically you’re ignoring the data and want to just stand on the street corner with your sign screaming the end is near.

have at it.

 

no, you are ignoring reality and have been stating that it is all just about to wind down since April. It is hasn't. it will not just go away.

 

A magic wand isn’t going to happen and just make it go away but it will follow other viruses patterns.

It’s following farr’s law. If it wasn’t I might agree with you but that’s not what science or data says.

 

It's terrible but what's going to stop it other than a vaccine? Locking down? Or does it have to run its course? Or is this going to be seasonal and warm weather did a lot to keep it at bay?

Masks and social distancing has been adhered to fairly well, for the most part where I'm at. Most people aren't congregating in large groups, restaurants are doing 90% of their business via takeout and people aren't scoffing at it.

 

people are not complying at the rate needed. contact tracing demonstrates this. people *think* they are sometimes, but it only takes one eff it to be exposed, then expose your household.

locking down isn't an option because we don't have the social safety nets. A vaccine will end it. diligently following the guidelines will keep it suppressed until then.

Super spreader events like Sturgis are what spawned this in the upper midwest. those things have ripples.

 

Sturgis wasn't smart.

The riots and protests didn't help either, even if they weren't super spreader events. People see that and wonder why they can't go on with their normal routine.

 

repeating Farr's like it is a magic spell doesn't do anything for me. I never disputed it, I just think in the context of a baseline of 500+ deaths a day it isn't cause for relief. It will not go back to zero without either going through most of the population or a vaccine. it will not. your belief which you call data is that it mostly has gone through the northeast. actual data indicates this is not true.

But all we have to do is watch. if you are right, deaths should be steady and then decline to zero over the next 2 or 3 months.

 

It's like Fauci taking his mask off at the baseball game, probably not a big deal but horrible optics

 

that's fair.

 

the north east is averaging like 40 deaths a day now.

that’s incredibly low

 

1918 took two years before it was mostly gone. There were hotspots even after that.

So while I agree that it will follow other virus patterns, I don't think we agree on how long that pattern will be.

When do you think, for example, it's out of Tennessee?

 

couple more guarantano starts and it'll leave on its own imo

 

I don’t think we’ll see a true second wave. The flu likes to mutate.

That’s not generally the case for Covid viruses and while they generally don’t have a second wave.

the virus in Tennessee now is mostly hitting rural areas that had pockets of low transmission earlier.

I don’t think it’s going to completely go to 0

 

Memphis is seeing its biggest spike yet, and though we are a rural area, we act like we're not.

When do you think its going to go to whatever it is that you think it is going to go to? I always thought March, but that is getting harder for me to get to.

 

I think March sound about right.

I thought deaths had dramatically dropped in the Shelby area.

 

Deaths lag cases by about three weeks. We just spiked recently, so we'll see deaths go up here in a bit.

 

hopefully it will follow the other trends that are dropping the case fatality rate

 

I'm not sure other places are dropping case fatality rate, so much as that we're seeing really really big case numbers now, and the deaths haven't caught up, because of the lag.

So for example, let's say that new case drop to 1 tomorrow, and stay at 1 for the next three weeks. Then the deaths would be 3/1, 4/1, 10/1, 3/1. We'd say, wow, that's a high death to case ratio... but only because we're seeing so many more deaths to cases. But it is all due to lag.

That is what is happening now. Highest 7 day average of cases we've had, US wise, ever, but the deaths are quite possibly from the past, and we just haven't hit them yet.

 

just go look at late june in this thread and then what happened by late july. we are in late june stage.