COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

I don’t think we’ll see a day at 4,000 this month. Days at 3,000 (maybe as high as 3,500) seem likely. With what’s baked in, the moving average shouldn’t hit 3,000 and the Midwest is turning down. If we don’t see a post-Thanksgiving explosion, we should be able to keep the MA below 3000.

New hospitalizations per day are (maybe peaking out) right now pretty close to April levels.

EDIT: I came back to add this. Not all states report new hospitalizations per day. So if bigger states that don’t are high now and the states that were high back in April did report it, it would make my statement wrong. And current hospitalizations are certainly higher than in April, suggesting that might be going on. I’ll take a closer look at the states and see.

 

I'm asking because i don't know, but what about flu, pneumonia and other similar deaths over the last few weeks. Are these all covid deaths being reported? Or is there a chance the spike is higher due to "regular scheduled" deaths caused by yearly flu, pneumonia, infections, etc being lower than usual.
Honest questions.

 

I think you’re asking about dry tinder. Are you asking because flu is very low this year are people dying from COVID that would have died from flu anyway this fall?

 

yes or pneumonia, heart failure, anxiety attacks even.

 

This isn't April. Getting a COVID test on someone is trivial. We're not going to see a ton of flu related deaths as COVID.

And in flu and COVID the actual cause of death is generally pneumonia.

Pneumonia of unknown viral origin isn't going to be confused with COVID because they'll test for it.

Where your risk from mislabel is death outside the hospital, but they'll still probably test tissue.

 

Deaths above normal are just now peaking (?) in many states, and the true death toll of COVID may be about 350,000 right now. These aren't a bunch of deaths from something else or at the same rate as normal stuff.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-death-toll-us.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

 

That seems like a different question.

Yes there are compromised individuals catching COVID now and dying. Some of these, if COVID were not present, would die of flu (or seasonal respiratory diseases). However, those flu viruses are not spreading right now (because they gave R(0)s not too much greater than one and masks help kick it down below one).

This doesn’t mean those aren’t COVID deaths. They absolutely are.

It does mean that excess deaths (current deaths minus average deaths this time of year) could be lower than COVID deaths. Right now excess deaths are elevated, but they aren’t a lot more elevated than the reported COVID deaths, which is different than our two previous surges. I think it is at least in part due to this dry tinder effect. But higher case capture could also be a factor.

As for the points about heart failure or anxiety attacks, that makes me wonder if I understood your question correctly. You could see lower heart attacks right now if enough people with bad hearts died of COVID earlier this year. But I don’t think that’s a thing. And it seems that isn’t what you’re asking.

Ate you just asking if we are counting flu, heart attack, and anxiety attack (?) deaths as COVId?

 

A little bit of all that. Flu deaths are basically neglible right now, correct? And normally we have how many people who are hosptialized, die per day or week in flu season going into week 2 in december?

 

Yes we’d normally see quite a few more flu deaths than we are seeing right now. They wouldn’t be clinically diagnosed flu deaths (we only have 5,000 or so of those a year) but they would be happening. So that is why excess deaths is likely not going to be as large as COVID deaths (or the overage of excess deaths over COVID deaths smaller) right now.

It isn’t that people are dying of flu amd we are just a calling it COVID. Rather, flu just isn’t circulating (yet).

 

More people will die due to COVID this month and last month, than would die from the flu, or flu related cause, in an average year.

 

Hospital from hometown is now at full capacity.

 

Below is current hospitalizations vs. deaths. The midwest seems to be peaking, but CA, TX, FL, etc. are beginning to climb on their own. Because of the population differences, I don't think this will just offset but rather will likely drive the peak higher. So this is why 2000-2500 deaths/day (7 day MA) seems in the cards - but also why unless we see significantly higher case growth (perhaps due to Thanksgiving....or just increasingly cold weather across the country) we aren't yet in the territory of expecting 3,000+ deaths/day as a moving average (again, single days will be above 3,000 if the MA moves toward 2500/day).

 

Other than the initial months, when people weren't being hospitalized, and just dying at home, the deaths per day moving average has followed the hospitalization curve.

So if that hospitalization curve gets to 3,000, and it's still pretty vertical, we'll get to 3k per day moving average. If I stare hard, I can make it round off at 2500, but that may be just hope.

And we'll quickly track back to the hospitalization curve and away from this little Thanksgiving reporting blip.

 

Yeah I the curve only predicts the near future. The lag isn’t *that* long. Could we go to 3000? Sure. Does the curve say we are? Not yet at least.

You have to inform the hospitalization curve with what you know about cases. Amd prior to Thanksgiving at least, the Midwest, which was the initial driver of this surge, was peaking and turning around. The fact that texas, California, etc are beginning to rise now complicates the process of determining whether peaking Midwest cases means dropping hospitalizations. The location of the hospitalizations may just move.

 

how does full hospitals affect hospitalization growth?

if new cases forecast hospitalizations, we are still climbing.

 

The fact that Texas, California and the rest, that have had previous peaks, before, should kind of inform that the Midwest can peak again. And the lag time between the peaks might not be as long as it was the first go.

We saw Texas, California, Florida, South Carolina all have bad summers, and yet, here they are again. The Midwest didn't have a bad summer, they had a bad fall. That doesn't mean the midwest can't have a bad winter... especially if winter is a driver.

 

Yeah it’s fuzzy. Midwest is peaking it seems. Or was peaking. But areas like CA really beginning to climb.

 

Yes, it’s clear we are a good ways from being done. Question is in thai immediate surge do we hit 3000 before dropping back down for some time. I’m saying 2000-2500 moving average seems baked in. Then getting to 3000 would happen with additional case growth / hospitalization growth but isn’t baked in by any means at this point.

 

I don't disagree. But I can see 3,000. Hopeful to me is that we stop at 2,500.

 

Whatever happened to herd immunity?
It is all around me here. My entore golf group got it. 1 had it bad and got pneumonia. The rest not affected.
Former BA student turned officer died this week, and while he was in icu, both his parents died as he was caregiver. He was only mid 40s. Wondering if they had some underlying condition or just had a sever load.
Again i dont know shit about all this and get most of my info here. Just seems odd to me. Another death of an in shape landscaper, but he also spent his fmdays around chems and a chem truck.