FREE MONEY! 2014 CFB Gambling

Single game makes sense. Trying to equal out all games would be near impossible.

 

Well yeah, they aren't ever going to get even money on both sides of every bet. But as a general guiding principle that would be their goal. And when they set the lines that's their goal.

It's a cat and mouse game between professional bettors that the books fear and the books. One thing that a giant whale bettors will do is throw down a bunch of money on one side just for the purpose of making the line move, and then coming in once it does move and throwing down 5x on the other side. Books know this and this would represent one of severals scenarios where a book ends up getting way more action on one side than another. The book is always viewing things with risk management in mind. They don't want to get overexposed on one side and get hammered as a result. And if they do a goo job of setting the line initially, they won't. But it doesn't always work out like that and in some games they might have 70% of the money on one side when the betting is closed....but that certainly wasn't their goal.

 

Also,

FSU-3.5 at Louisville on Thursday night.

What the hell am I missing? Is Vegas trying to give me money?

 

doesn't make any sense.

 

I assume it's an overreaction to the charges filed against FSU's RB. But he's not even a primary back. He splits carries. I don't see that being terribly significant.

 

Thursday night games are also known for upsets.

 

I know. And that's factored into the line, and here I think ti's factored in too much. I took FSU at -3.5 and also on the moneyline (-167). I doubt either one of those go any lower, but if they do, oh well, I'm still okay with those numbers.

 

Massive reverse line movement with the FSU game.

As well as Oregon-Stanford game.

Continue at your own risk.

 

Also, Jimbo

Petrino also made his name on thursday night upsets

 

I've heard all the arguments for Louisville. I still like my FSU play.

 

I like several small favorites this week.

GT and Air Force* come to mind. I also like Cincy-3.5 over tulane on the road in the friday night game.

Arky State-14.5 over Idaho looks quite intereting.

And several others I'm considering. I wont bet all these and may bet some not listed. My guy only lets me put in plays on games two days or fewer away. So only on FSU and Cincy at this point.

W.Mich-6.5
Nevada-4
Colorado State-7
Duke+3
Auburn+2.5
Arkansas+10.5
UK+6.5
UNC+17
Vols+8
Georgia State+11
Oklahoma State+14

_________
*Sorry BPV

 

My thinking when a line is -3.5 is that if you're gonna bet on Louisville (at +3.5), you better be thinking they're gonna win the game outright. And so clearly there are some people out there that think Louisville is going to win the game outright. I am obviously not in that camp. I've seen Louisville play this year and I was not impressed.

 

When you say "reverse line movement", do you mean "a christmas present from Vegas"?

RLM never bothered me much.

When you start basing betting decision on RLM what you've essentially done is decided to tail somebody else's plays. Except that you don't who that person is. Not my stylo.

 

Gee, imagine that. Back to back seasons where the great Bobby Petrino has done jack shit.

 

I know that the people that do this for a living like Louisville. That's makes me tread lightly on those games. They've been right more than I have this year. RLM has been pretty much cash in the NFL this year. College, not so much, but I would definitely not just ignore it if I were you.

I don't make bets because there is RLM. I will NOT make bets though.

 

Bobby Petrino is a good coach, holmes. Not sure there is any denying this.

 

RLM might be meaningful in the pros. I don't bet NFL, though.

 

I had a good night. I put in a late play on Georgia Southern when the line dipped down to -24.5. Troy is so bad at football.

 

Yea Troy blows. No college but I rolled the Devils,Avalanche,Knicks and Saints for a solid night.

 

Decent CFB week for me. I'm kicking myself for not going bigger on a few and somehow forgetting to put in a play on Arky State. Still an okay weekend. I'm hoping to keep the momentum rolling.