Obama and the African-American Vote

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by kptvol, May 14, 2012.

  1. kptvol

    kptvol Super Moderator

    Do you think his recent statement of public support for gay marriage could hurt him with African-American voters?
     
  2. Lexvol

    Lexvol Guest

    May hurt some, but it will be minimal.
     
  3. NYYVol

    NYYVol Super Moderator

    Was my best pickup line in high school, Lex.
     
  4. Lexvol

    Lexvol Guest

    Just a little [Penis]!
     
  5. JayVols

    JayVols Walleye Catchin' Moderator

    I don't think it will hurt one bit. The fact of the matter is, most blacks aren't voting for a rich guy like Romney over a black candidate. Blacks that were voting against him to start with will still do so (<5-8%), those that were voting for him will still vote for him. Just the was it is, imo.
     
  6. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    Might hurt turnout, but won't hurt proportionally.
     
  7. droski

    droski Traffic Criminal

    they may not vote for romney, but they rarely get out to vote in big numbers and this could stop them from going to the polls at all. edit: ip beat me to it
     
  8. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    I suspect that was already going to happen to some degree anyway, given that it is no longer about having the first non-white President.

    I also am still laughing at the people who think Obama just said what he said to get votes... Quite the opposite, it could end up being the deciding margin against him.
     
  9. JayVols

    JayVols Walleye Catchin' Moderator

    I see how it could hurt turnout, but I just don't think it will happen. The black community really wants the Obama Presidency to be viewed as a success (not successful in the eyes of everyone, mind you. I realize some will never view him as a success). If Obama is a one term President, he will be viewed as a failure no matter what in many circles. I think this demographic will turn out in similar numbers for that reason if no other.
     
  10. droski

    droski Traffic Criminal

    yeah i imagine the young and minority turnout will be lower no matter what. gay turnout might be higher. i do think a lot of his base might have stayed away and this might help.
     
  11. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    Still a long way until November though, and this may yet fade into the background as other things become the topic of the day.
     
  12. kptvol

    kptvol Super Moderator

    Hmm. No, I don't think reelection vs. election will affect the turnout much for the reasons Jay outlined below. Black people tend to be disproportionately against gay marriage, if certain polls are to be believed. Obviously I don't see that swinging them to Romney, but think it will affect turnout.
     
  13. droski

    droski Traffic Criminal

    every election year we heard how the young and minorities were going to get out and vote. every year it didn't happen and bam obama's year it did. so the question is was this a change in american elections or an abberation? i'm going with the latter.
     
  14. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    I am with Droski. I think it was an aberration. That doesn't mean a lower turnout won't be spun into a "gay marriage" thing.
     
  15. kptvol

    kptvol Super Moderator

    A lower turnout with African-Americans or young people?

    One I could see some probability for the issue affecting turnout. The other I'd blame on his idealistic rock star image losing some of its appeal over the last four years.

    I guess the spin would be applied regardless, though.
     
  16. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    I think the "rock star" and "icon" thing will have a lot more to do with it for both groups. Obama isn't an abstract hope or figurehead. He is a real dude whose presidency fell well short of being radical (despite how conservative pundits tend to describe him).
     
  17. kptvol

    kptvol Super Moderator

    Why would he be less of an icon for black voters?
     
  18. droski

    droski Traffic Criminal

    young people primarily imo. you had the perfect storm of hatred of bush, shitty economy, and an exciting option. my guess is this time around young people will go back to not giving a shit.
     
  19. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    1. No longer new.
    2. No longer see him as "black" as before.
    3. He didn't pay some of the community members' rent like they thought he promised to.
     
  20. kptvol

    kptvol Super Moderator

    Could see 2 and 3, not so much 1. It isn't like there is another black politician waiting in the wings.
     

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