I don't really care to argue about it. I wasn't one of the people saying he would win "in a landslide." I do think that, had the pandemic not happened, he would have won relatively easily. But again, I don't really care to argue about it. The pandemic happened, and Biden won the election. Republicans seem to be in a solid position to take back both the House and the Senate. The presidency is still a complete mystery to me because Trump seems intent on staying relevant. I don't think the guy is electable anymore. Also not really sure what to expect from the Democrats. Surely Biden isn't running again, right? And if not, then who? Harris seems far too unpopular.
The nature and intensity of the campaign would've been different, but the election would still be relatively the same. Trump's approval number was remarkably steady at around 40% or so. By 2020, there were few people on the fence regarding their opinion of him. He was always more likely to lose than win. Losing the popular vote while winning the electoral college is pretty darn hard to do twice.
Inflation is just getting starting and isn’t going away any time soon. they have little to no bullets to fight it so I don’t see how there’s not going to be massive anger at the voting booth in 2022
Again, the idea he would've won easily has no basis. He was not popular and had a hardened opposition as much as hardened supporters, plus lost seats decisively in the mid-terms. He was in trouble 100%. As far as the mid-terms, I think the House is iffy for both parties and will wait to see how the next 6 months or so goes, particularly in regards to Covid. Senate map is not great for the Republicans in 2022, much better for them in 2024. As far as 2024, I haven't the faintest inkling as of yet. I dread another Trump narcissist shit show about how wronged he was. He needs to go away. He's serious poison for this country. Not the only poison, but a big, big part of it, the #1 poison. This is, also, the first time in a while I don't know who the Dems have in waiting. Harris is a weak campaigner. She gets way more shit than she deserves, but doesn't effectively counter these attacks. Honestly, Buttigieg is the most promising, but being gay has to be a huge hindrance in the end. It might be Biden in the end, the sequel nobody really wants to see, Trump-Biden II. Ugh.
Internet message boards are serious business in your world, I get it, so let me know if you ever change your mind.
Where are these numbers coming from? Which states? It's possible the GOP will makes gains being the party of obstruction and I wonder if this off-election will run the same as 1982 when Reagan was unpopular due to inflation. The Dems won a lot of seats in the House, but the Senate remained almost unchanged.
Brookings. Republican's will gain 3 seats, Democrats will loose 2 and there is 1 independent that is lost that I believe is in a more Democratic voting area if I remember correctly but could be wrong.
if the current zeitgeist continues through the next year, the House is flipping. But things change unpredictably. Afghanistan was an unavoidable trap. Damned if you follow through, damned if you don't. Inflation and supply chain disruption was an unavoidable follow-on to COVID-related matters. All the same, here we are with a "majority" that can't pass gas and an opposition who sincerely believes that "majority" is somehow going to destroy the country should it manage to pass gas- which it can't. And many younger voters who feel like because even gas cannot pass, they should sit out to "teach" Dems "a lesson" about... flatulence, I guess. You get what I am saying. Conditions are unfavorable in this moment in time.
Those are state numbers. What matters is districting. Republicans definitely are making more maps, but they also run into the issues I mentioned above regarding how voters are distributed and whether they can create more favorable districts or more purple districts. There are, basically, more Democratic voters, but Republicans control far more of the voting maps, of course. Because our system is silly in so many ways.
Oh, I definitely get it and don't see it much differently than you do here. Republicans are almost always more on page with voting than the Dems and the wing of the progressives who are arrogantly trying to "teach lessons" have been losing elections with no benefit to their cause since the Ralph Nader days.
