Who's up for a challenge to win a billion?

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by CardinalVol, Jan 21, 2014.

  1. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/21/news/companies/buffett-ncaa-bracket/

    If people are willing to do this, we agree up front to devise a strategy to go in together and split winnings if we win it. Of course, I would want to take the $500M payout too. Whoever actually did the bracket gets to attend the game.

    Who's in?

    In:

    Card
    JQK
    IP
    Bass***
    Jay
    Syndicate
    droski
    Norris
    Indy
    NYY
    dknash
    gbc
    kb
    invol
    lumber
    rb
    hh
    beech

    *** - in, but we may hunt him down and kill him
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2014
  2. JohnnyQuickkick

    JohnnyQuickkick Great Man

  3. droski

    droski Super Moderator

    There are more than 9 quintillion possible ways to fill out the 64-team bracket, according to the math and science site Orgtheory.net. That's 9 million-trillion, or 9 followed by 18 zeros. That makes it a far longer shot than the one in 259 million odds of winning the grand prize in MegaMillions or the one in 175 million odds of winning Powerball's top prize.

    not really true given the fact that you can pretty much assume a 13th-16th seed wont get to say the final four, let alone win it.
     
  4. droski

    droski Super Moderator

    3.93% IRR

    would be a sucker to take the payout over the 40 years.
     
  5. Indy

    Indy Irrational and hormonal

    Had a bracket in the top 1200 last year on espn...
     
  6. hallowed_hill

    hallowed_hill Chieftain

    Assume #1-4 seeds win first game and #1 seeds also win second, and the odds are still ~1 in 9000000000000.
     
  7. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    Yup. It makes zero sense to ever take the payout. Always take the lump sum. Always.
     
  8. droski

    droski Super Moderator

    wonder if you could make a computer program that could submit that many brackets. I imagine they have a limit to the amount per person.
     
  9. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Super Moderator

    One submission a second and you would only take 285388 years, longer than the homo sapiens species has been on the planet :)
     
  10. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    I'm in.
     
  11. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    The odds are assuming totally random chance. While chance plays a large role in a game and in an entire tournament, we all know it isn't purely chance.

    We don't need to submit every possible outcome.
     
  12. droski

    droski Super Moderator

    fine!
     
  13. droski

    droski Super Moderator

    hell. if you just pick the favorites every year you have a good chance of winning your company bracket challenge. my brother in law does this and has won 3 out of the last 4 years. if you limited it to a certain number of upsets maybe you can get it down to a manageable number.
     
  14. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    That's my thought.

    Develop a plan, delegate it, and go from there. I figure at best we're looking at 2,000 or so entries, but they all need to be calculated ones.
     
  15. droski

    droski Super Moderator

    I think you'd need at least 100K to have any sort of chance. but a good programmer could do that easily.
     
  16. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    Agreed. These are free lottery tickets. If we have a system, we can whittle the odds down some. Not saying we are going to win, but I think an organized effort really could get lucky.
     
  17. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    The first step will be looking at Round 1, and determine what is pretty much impossible.
     
  18. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    And the more people that are in, the better the chance.
     
  19. Bassmanbruno

    Bassmanbruno Banned

    I'm in - but if I win I'm going to pretend I did it myself.
     
  20. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    Bassman is not in.
     

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