The Stock Market Thread

I wish oil stayed dead, but it won't

 

I’ll just keep buying a large cap index fund and mid cap index fund.

All that is way out of my depth

 

That’s my plan for my 401k money once I’m back in. Just going large/mid cap index and letting it ride.

It’s in my investment account that I’m taking some money and doing other things with it. That’s where I’m waiting on my UGAZ trade (basically it’s a 3x long fund that is indexed to natural gas - it goes up when bay gas goes up).

 

i dont disagree with the play, but as an fyi the tracking on those ultra funds has been awful. really should only be used for a short term play.

 

Over what period do you tend to see the real decay? How short term are we talking?

 

like a couple of weeks. i haven't looked at it recently, but they used to get like 70% of the upside and 120% of the downside. especially when it's volatile. i imagine there are websites that track it.

 

That’s worse than I thought. I’ll look into that more. A bunch of us at work made some money this fall on DGAZ but we were in and out fairly quickly. This UGAZ trade could take some time to develop so I will need to wait and time it better if the decay is that steep.

 

the problem they have is matching the price when they either get a lot of buys or redemptions which is of course generally when you want to own it because they are buying derivatives to do the leverage

 

vix is at 09 bottom of the market levels. definitely tons of bottom of the market signals

http://www.cboe.com/vix

 

What's anyone think about buying carnival stock?

It sitting at 10 dollars seems like a steal for shorting it once this stuff is over

 

I feel like they could go under. Tempting though.

 

Dunno. If there’s a bail out and they follow 08 they could take 80 percent of the equity. Do they have preferreds? That might be the way to go

 

Really pays to be on the Senate Intel committee, apparently.

 

What's everybody paying for gas?

$1.19 here.

Down 0.60 since last nite.

 

don't know, havent had to drive my car since Monday. But daaaaamn

 

Was it really all that different from what we were thinking last week? Or am I getting my timeline wrong?

EDIT: never mind I see the sales were back around feb 13. That’s early.

 

IIRC it was $2.49 last week

 

adjusted for inflation, this is a 90's type price. historically cheap?

 

I remember paying a dollar in HS and that was the 90's.

I think it gets there eventually. Typically thats not the cheapest around here. Im betting its already a dollar in places.