market is trading on technicals and is worried about the housing market. i think we see a significant year end rally once the economic numbers start coming in, but we shall see. everyone is saying a slowdown in late 2019 btw. i see no signs of it, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. there's a lot of room to run in the economy especially in wage inflation. trump can't control the oil price one way or another.
absolutely. i have a client who's the american ceo of a major plumbing supply company and they just posted a record year and expect a record year next year too, but their internal projections are for a down year in 2020 and they are already freezing hiring in anticipation because they know they won't make their earning projections otherwise. enough people do that and you will have a recession.
False on Trump. I don’t think he can long term but he absolutely moved the market in the last month and we’ll see what OPEC+ does tomorrow/Friday to determine how much he is influencing. He has Saudi over a bit of a barrel and they are worried about the NOPEC bill given the Dem house, which gives Trump more leverage. If they announce fuzzy cuts, the market will trade down again and Trump will be the reason.
I am seeing some of my "first wave" clients see a small decrease in things. I'm at the point where I think it's when, not if.
It does seem like we have a nice downward trend channel setting up. Bounced off oct 3, Oct 11, Nov 7, Nov 23, and yesterday.
I think it may always be, with this sort of thing. Or at least that is what ends up defining a movement rather than the nudges that got it to the precipice of that prophesy.
Why do you think Trump is maneuvering in that way? Doesn't that negatively influence domestic oil development?
It does if he goes too far. But there are a few potential lines of thought 1) It’s a populist move and he thinks he’ll win with voters for getting gas prices low (least likely IMO because I don’t think folks were really that worried about gas prices) 2) Trump is trying to push out a recession until 2021 for election purposes and gin up the global economy with low oil. Possible but I don’t think that’s it. 3) Trump’s advisors told him that if he went in on Iran as hard as he wanted to that global oil prices would go over $100 and both of the concerns in 1 and 2 would become real. So he needed to get OPEC to begin flowin again and drive the price down. So he did OPEC first by claiming super aggressive Iranian cuts and then issued waivers that basically said Iran could do what they wanted anyway. I think he’ll them use the sloppy market to give him cushion to come in hard on Iran. I think he will want to use Iran as an important 2021 platform and this is buying him runway to get tough.
the saudis (and basically everyone else for that matter) can't increase production even if they want to. they are already at max production to pay for all their social programs. the only thing opec can do at this point is cut production and make the oil price go higher, but none of them can afford to do it.
yeah i don't know how much is fear from 08 creeping in. or a sense of "we are due" which i don't personally buy as a valid reason. there really isn't anything in economic numbers that suggests we are slowing down at all the the trajectory is up across the board and wage inflation is no where near where it would be if the economy was near max. the market is the only leading indicator that would suggest a slowdown and even that isn't anywhere close to where it would be if people saw a recession coming soon.
yeah, but in those cases it's a trend until it's not as they say. if you are looking for a time to get in charting works ok, but for long term directions i haven't found it very helpful.
i knew this was a bubble when i had friends buying it. i looked into shorting it, but it required approval from my compliance department and i just said [uck fay] it. oh well.
yeah i usually get into shorts too early too, so i probably would have screwed it up. i was shorting heavy in 08 and gave up and 2 months later it all blew up. bleh there's a bunch of celebrities pushing it. i wonder what bitcoin is giving them.
First - they were in a position this summer to increase production because they were still in their OPEC+ cuts of 1.8 MBPD. So they had barrels to produce but were sitting on them. So Trump came out swinging his D saying that they he was going to take Iran to zero exports including condensates. And everyone believed him. OPEC was worried about supply shock and brought 1.8 MBPD back on the market. Trump yelled not enough and Saudis went to record production and increased exports almost another 1 MBPD. Then Trump said - fake! - I don’t really care if you buy Iranian barrels. At least for 6 months. Maybe longer. But OPEC be damed if they cut production again. “We need lower prices. And oh yeah, MBS I’m your friend but the CIA knows you totally ordered the murder of Kashoggi. You might want to play nice with me.” Trump has absolutely moved the oil market.
that's what a 2 percent increase in supply? i know minor differences can make a difference short term, but doesn't seem like much available capacity to me.
