https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...warn-winter-is-coming-as-business-cycle-peaks What say ye dros?
I have been wondering about this as well. I would like to dump some of my stuff to cash just to take advantage of it if possible. But I just know I am going to mess up and miss another 4k up turn...
If you are riding the waves, eventually you'll get stuck. But then you just get to become a long term investor. If you are going to get out and wait, you're gambling bigger than risking getting stuck.
we're in the 8th inning of the bull market. the economy is extremely strong, but the market is priced to perfection. I don't see a bear market in say the next 12 months, but the only thing that drives the market significantly higher would be signs of tax reform, particularly a corporate tax cut. if we start seeing signs the economy is slowing, then I'd start selling.
The interest rate stuff has to come how to roost soon. Obama did a good job of holding it off during his tenure but you can’t treat it like Monopoly money for ever
economy is too strong for a bear market. 10 out of 12 bear markets get caused by recessions. we aren't anywhere near that.
inflation is still near historical lows. obama didn't have anything to do with that either. we almost had deflation under obama because of the economy collapsing. took a long ways to get out of that.
yeah it's not inverted in the classical sense. with inflation this low i don't see the fed going crazy
I think the market is saying we need to reach neutral rates next year, not 2020 as the Fed is currently saying. I was thinking recession by late 2020 - but the groundwork will be layed by late 2019. Trump’s push for lower oil price may push it back enough. It’ll hurt the US directly but help indirectly. We need the emerging markets for trade and with the strength of the dollar, effective oil prices were very high locally even if not bad here in the US.
