Hooker well positioned for the Heisman with the Schedule

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...layoff-chances-conference-races-heisman-watch

Way down towards the bottom of this article, dude is doing an experiment where he gives out the Heisman each week. He ranks the top 10 players based on performance each week, giving 10 points to the guy who gets first place, 9 to 2nd place, 8 to third place, and so on. Then he adds the points from each week up to see how his Heisman rankings pan out.

The first thing that jumps out to me:



In what universe is 354 yards and a TD in a 2 TD win over #13 team more impressive than 245 yards and 4 total TD's in a 44-6 win against #19 team? I didn't watch OSU/Penn State, but I've read that Stroud struggled. I watched UT/UK, and Hooker didn't struggle. The stats objectively sway in favor of Hooker, so... wtf?

Then you get a bit further down to the current total rankings. Go figure, Stroud is first. But then he's got... Bo Nix?... second? Hooker falls to 3rd, only a single point ahead of Kansas's Jalon Daniels. Here's what he says about Hooker:



Better overall stats? They have identical total yards and QBR. Stroud has 8 more TD's, but 4x as many interceptions. You can also take a deeper look at where the TD's come from:

Stroud:

• 4 against Arkansas St
• 5 against Toledo
• 5 against 4-4 Wisconsin
• 6 against 3-5 Michigan State
• 4 against 4-4 Iowa
• OSU hasn't really played ANY team that's worth a shit, but in their two games against opponents who were ranked at the time, he's got 1 against Penn St and 2 against Notre Dame. Super impressive!

Meanwhile, Hooker only ran up stats on 1 bad team, with 5 TD's against UTM. He had 2 against Ball State and 2 against Akron, in games that we won a combined 122-6. That's the difference in the stats. Apparently, this man's opinion would change if Hooker had thrown 3 more TD's against Ball State and Akron to get his total up to 27, much closer to Stroud's 29. Doing that would have been objectively unimpressive, but for this guy, it's a BIG DEAL.

And that doesn't even cover the run game, where Hooker has 338 yards rushing compared to Stroud's -4, with 4 rushing TD's compared to Stroud's 0.

Then you see the "better overall team" according to "plenty of other sources." Sources we all know are based on inflated numbers put up against bad teams.

He even takes it a step further, stating that he's "not sure why Stroud's stock would be falling so far behind Hooker's." Maybe I can help him out:

• Hooker and Tennessee have put up nearly identical numbers on FAR better competition, including a home win over a top 5 Alabama team, a road blowout of an LSU team that's probably better than any team OSU has played this year, and a home blowout over a UK team that's probably better than all but 1 team OSU has played this season.
• Hooker has a Heisman moment - 385 passing yards, 56 rushing yards, 5 TD passes against then #3 Alabama. It's by far his best game of the season statistically, and it's really not even close. What is Stroud's Heisman moment? 367 yards and 5 TD's against Toledo? 361 yards and 6 TD's against 3-5 Michigan State? He doesn't have one.

It's VERY easy to see why Hooker is the Heisman favorite. This man not understanding it is showing that he's biased.

 

See Indy, this is why I don't expect Hendon to win it, jackasses like that guy have Heisman votes

 

Reminds me of the argument against Chris Carter back in the day: He only catches touchdowns.

No shit, that is what you are paid to do.

 

"It's a big club and we ain't in it", George Carlin

 

Voting needs to be single blind. You can see how voter voted, but they vote on unnamed resumes of individual stats and team accomplishments. E.g. "20 passing TD's, 4 rushing TD's, 5 ranked wins over then #10/now #14 opponent, #6 then #3 opponent..." etc. Will they be able to figure out who is who? yes. But it will make them have to acknowledge what they are ignoring.

People will say, "but the eye test!" That's for identifying the top 5 or 10 candidates. After that? Anonymized resume.

 

It boggles the mind no one calls out Ohio State for what exactly is happening. They are playing in a two team league and they don't play the other team until the last game of the season. Stroud putting up numbers against Toledo and Michigan State is not impressive.

 

Hooker could have better overall stats in every regard than Stroud but if Stroud plays well against Michigan, he'll win the Heisman because that game will be in the most recent memory for all voters and most of those voters will use justification like Bill Connelly above.

The only way Hooker wins is if he both beats UGA and balls out the rest of the year AND Stroud loses to Michigan. That's the only way he will have a chance of winning.

 

I bet Hooker thinks, "I'll give up the Heisman, if my Vols can win the Natty."

 

Any player worth his salt will think this. Hesiman is a beauty pageant anyway, so meh.

 

I bet Michigan bounces Ohio State again this year. Harbaugh has finally built a program that is just more physically nasty than Ohio

 

I'm not sure I see it this way anymore. I think the hype is trending massively towards Hooker, and I think the Big 10 vote may be more split this year. I'm starting to see Hooker ranked more highly on lists and having shorter odds.

But I do think Tennessee may have to go undefeated, at least in the regular season, for Hooker to actually win. Whether or not that's fair is a different question.

 

Stroud is laying an egg

 

Crazy. This should be a stat pad game for him. Much like the rest of the season.

 

Stat line is abysmal. Hooker might stay ahead with a good stat line, even if we lose.

 

I’d go ahead and say “will.” But if we don’t go 12-0, it’s going to come down to whether or not Stroud lights up Michigan.

 

Crazy windy game with 50 mph gusts

 

“Look at how well he fought through adversity to pull out a win for his team in a tough situation!”

 

What is interesting is that a Big ten player hasn't won this thing in a while. And it has been dominated by the SEC and Oklahoma the last ten years.

Might help Stroud.

 

Welp. Neither guy was good but that’s gonna hurt Hooker.

 

That's about it.