How many wins makes 2019 a successful year?

Y'all are gonna be very disappointed.

 

How so?

General expectation seems to be 7 wins.

 

General expectation was not getting thrashed by Vandy and Missouri with bowl eligibility on the line, too, but we saw how that turned out.

 

I want to see 7 regular season wins and a bowl win.

6 wins would be a disappointment.

 

7 minimum
8+ would be fantastic

 

8/31: GA ST
9/7: BYU
9/14: UTC
9/21: @UF
9/28: BYE
10/5: UGA
10/12: MISS ST.
10/19: @BAMA
10/26: USC
11/2: UAB
11/9: @KY
11/16: BYE
11/23: @MIZZOU
11/30: VANDY

Where are these 8 wins?

GUARANTEED (Essentially) WINS:
1. GA ST.
2. BYU
3. UTC
4. UAB

GUARANTEED LOSSES:
1. UGA
2. @BAMA

So, you’re 4-2 in 6 guaranteed games, and with the following “toss up” games left:
1. @UF
2. MISS ST.
3. USC
4. @KY
5. @MIZZOU
6. VANDY

Our record versus these 6 toss-ups will result in the following overall record:

0-6 toss up = 4-8 overall
1-5 toss up = 5-7 overall
2-4 toss up = 6-6 overall
3-3 toss up = 7-6 overall
4-2 toss up = 8-5 overall
5-1 toss up = 9-4 overall
6-0 toss up = 10-3 overall

Before everyone starts guessing, count how many of those tossup games where Tennessee will be favored to win.

 

Kentucky will never be a toss up. They are 2-32 in the last 34 years. The best football team they've had in 50 years got skull [uck fay]ed by a 5-7 Tennessee team

 

Wins against UF, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt plus the 4 bought wins.

 

If we can't win 4 of these, Pruitt can take his goofy ass back to Tuscaloosa.

 

Not having to play Grier, Lock and the same Vandy QB this year should turn those from 0-3 to 3-0. Those were good and accurate nfl caliber qbs who knew what they were doing.

 

I've stated this a couple of time in other threads and discussions. But here it goes:

We return 17 out 21 starters I believe it is. 3 of those not returning were on the DL. So I get the concern there, but we have a good returning nose in Gooden. We desperately need Solomom to get eligible. And we need Savion Williams to come in and make an impact. Behind those guys we will be unproven, but guys like Mincey, Harris, etc. Have flashed at times. The DL will be the biggest question mark on D. I think we'll be just fine at LB and Secondary.

Offense it's all about the OL again. I'm still a little concerned myself with this unit, but a lot is going to depend on what we can get out of injured players, namely Trey Smith and Brandon Kennedy. I have been operating under the assumption that Smith wont be back, but that Kennedy will be full go in the fall. We will probably be starting 2 true freshman on the line this year. All in all, I can't see us being any worse than last year. We should be bigger and stronger, that along with a new OC, I think we'll be able to be serviceable on the OL.

As far as the schedule sets up:

Bama is the only guaranteed loss I see.

UGA and UF are both unlikely wins, I wouldnt predict a win over either at this point but they are not unwinnable games.

Next tier includes Miss St., USCe, Mizzou, UK, and Vandy. Heres where we will see a jump in wins this year or at least should IMO. State, Mizzou and Vandy will all have new QBs. USce is at home and UK is UK. Get 4 out of 5 here and you have 8 wins. 3 out of 5 and you have 7.

The schedule sets up easier this year.

We return most all players from last years team.

Weve upgraded the staff, especially at OC.

If all of the factors above cant get us 2-3 more wins this year, then Pruitt is not the guy.

 

I think winning the 3 of 6 tossup games to get to 7-6 overall is a tall and unlikely order.

Of those six games, I think we probably go 2-4, beating KY & VANDY, and finish the regular season 6-6. But Tennessee might not even be favored in either or both of those games, so getting a win will be far from automatic.

I don’t see us winning at UF or at Missouri, and I think that both MSU & USC are each more talented, deep and cohesive teams than we are. I actually think MSU will be a significantly harder game than USC, both because MSU’s RPO offense will give our young defense fits, and they won’t suffer with having Muschamp as the coach, as USC will.

All of the standard caveats apply - I’m dumb, I don’t know football, I am terrible at picking games, I’m a Negavol, etc. I will welcome and love for this team and staff to prove me wrong, but I’ll be very, very pleasantly surprised if they do.

I think we’re another season and a stellar recruiting class away from talking about 8+ wins per season.

 

Im concerned we are Harrison Bailey soph season away

 

Talent is there to win 6 games. To get 7-8 wins it will take solid coaching which I think we have and will find out.

 

If we don't see significant improvement across the board, including record in toss up games, you might as well get ready for the coaching search following 2021 season.

Also not sure what State is going to look like without Fitzgerald at QB.

 

I think Mizzou got better at QB, or at least more consistent

 

I'm bullish.

 

South Carolina, like all Muschamp coached teams, is a jumbled up cluster[uck fay]. Cohesive and Muschamp does not go together

 

I forgot about Bryant. Lock though, he tore us up. His anticipation and timing/back shoulder throws were hard to stop.

 

https://theathletic.com/943548/2019...s-impact-players-transfers/?source=dailyemail

Ubben, as always, provides some fair non-biased analysis of all things. Can quibble with small details, but pretty much spot on.