I've seen speculation that it was Ukraine and that it was actually Russia. But I can't see how Russia would benefit.
We will likely never know with certainty as to who is truly responsible. Whoever did it is going to gaslight and deny until the end of time.
So, he's got a bunch of highly speculative information, including a quote from prior to the invasion which isn't nearly what he represents it to be, and some "a lot of people say" stuff? Whatever. I used to like Sachs poverty advocacy, but he's another one in this weird age of politics who's morphed into some odd political entity as a Chinese government shill spouting American conspiracy nonsense, existing in this strange modern confluence of the worst lefty and righty representations. His logic is sloppy authoritarian regime type propaganda. I highly doubt the US sabotaged the pipeline in such a ham fisted way with the war in Ukraine turning solidly in their favor and a united Europe supporting them against the Russians. So, the US government is going to upset this turn in good fortune by bombing a pipeline (especially when plenty of others exist) to Europe? Eh, color me skeptical. This is the sort of shit which screams a government used to getting away with clumsy manipulations because of pliant media.
Frankly I didn’t know anything about this guy so I’ve got no opinion on him. I don’t really have a strong opinion one way or the other, but I can see why we would do it and I don’t see what Russia gets out of it. Not to say it has to be US or Russia that did it.
Russia gets to blame the Americans for sabotaging European fuel supplies and portray the US as the real enemy and aggressors in the war, not their Ukrainian "puppets". Putin gives a speech the other day talking about how the US is the only one to use nuclear weapons and how they "control Japan, Canada, and Germany". A false flag operation shouldn't be too hard to understand from their current thinking and predicament. On the other hand, things are going really good with our support in Ukraine and unity in Europe. Provisions are being made for transitioning away from Russian gas. Why upset the equilibrium?
The pipeline destruction doesn't really hurt Russia from what I can see. They already turned off the flow because of "parts shortages" that didn't exist. So they get the benefit of saying that the Americans blew up a pipeline they had already turned off and wasn't likely to bring back online to hurt Europe. From my seat Russia blowing it up is the only story that make sense.
The USA blowing it up fails an obvious cost benefit analysis and it feels your likelihood of believing it is largely based on your feelings of this administration. I’m not even saying it’s impossible we did this, but the Biden and Blinken quotes are not evidence.
i don’t know about the top. if it was us it was to keep European countries from having the option of coming to the table with Russia due to what is about to happen in Europe this winter. Europe is about to go through hell this winter. Germany had the option of staying western or a industrial modernized country. The pipeline sabotage took the latter off the table.
But at the same time I don't see why Russia discards an asset like that all because it isn't useful right now.
They’re already not okay. They will get through the winter but the hit that they’re about to take industrial wise is going to be massive and painful.
They have stocked piled natural gas the best they can but will be depending heavily on coal, wood, and diesel to weather. if it’s a harsh winter, it will get really ugly because they’re getting almost all of their energy supply now from marginal producers.
Interesting situation on the Dnieper, may have 15-20k Russians backed up against the wall. A major river crossing under duress is a tough proposition for a competent force, I expect them to surrender en masse within a week.
The new conscripts are not geared well, not being fed properly, and have no stable lines to deploy to. It's slaughter to put them out there, Russia needs to come to the table and work out something to save face. Declare their mission a success and beat it.
these aren’t Russian new conscripts. they’re Russians most experienced and “well” equipped troops. There’s only two bridges out of the area and both are damaged so heavy equipment can’t cross. so they have three choices now surrender, fight to the death, or abandon all equipment and flee across the bridges on foot.
