The Stock Market Thread

PMIs our today. Big surprise in US services. 52.6 expected. 50.9 reported. That’s a massively low number. Also US manufacturing is now in contraction (49.9).

 

If I'm reading this correctly, IP is [uck fay]ing us

 

The Fed is Trump’s target.
China has to be dealt with.

 

He’s off base with the fed. While the fed has definitely been too slow to act in the past, it doesn’t seem to be the case this time. He has to make a deal with China if he doesn’t want a market collapse right during his re-election campaign

 

Yeah, international is even to start to make my stomach turn.

 

The line yesterday was he's in no hurry to make a deal because

1. He wants the fed to keep dropping rates and when China is solved they will stop.
2. He wants it closer to election for political purposes.

 

I believe that each of these statements are true.

I believe that he already has a deal with China, at least in principle, now.

I also think his objections to the Fed extend much further and run far more deeply than either the current economy or the situation with China, and that he intends to use each to support / maximize his political leverage in making what he believes to be necessary reforms.

 

Sometimes being the smartest guys in the room makes you outsmart yourself and that’s been the case with J.P. Morgan. I knew enough to avoid that shit and don’t make a 1/100 of what those guys make.

 

That’s all well and good but the market can be a self fulfilling prophecy. Enough people believe this will cause a recession and that belief by itself will cause a recession. He has enough fairly smart people around him who should and probably are telling him this. He needs to settle this shit by fall

 

Oh, I agree. And when you hear "recession, recession, recession" everywhere you turn the TV, it only adds to it.

I still think we are gonna hit one in the next 18 months, but the timing is going to be very interesting for the election.

Side note - I've sat through 100 of these type presentations, and yesterday was easily one of the best I've heard.

 

The President "hereby orders" private companies, via tweet, to see alternatives to China.

1. what is the name of the political system in which the government controls industry?

2. this ought to calm it all down, 4d chess style.

3. the idea that Trump has any detailed plans or concept regarding the Fed, China, NK, etc and isn't just lurching in whatever direction the last person to advise him pushed, is the equivalent of believing "light as a feather, stiff as a board" being an authentic supernatural experience.

 

When folks here talked about how slow the recovery was after 2008, I frequently posted that it was partly a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many didn't want a robust recovery, because that would mean stimulus, bailouts etc worked. I completely agree that the market is partly driven by collective consciousness.

 

I actually wonder if he really does.

 

The more I've read on about 08 and how it was handled (Paulson, Bernake & Geithner have written a book called Firefighting that gives their side of story and is about 130 pages), I have become 100% convinced that if they hadn't acted we'd had a Depression that made the Depression seem small.

I still don't "like" bailouts, but they had to happen in 08.

 

He does.

If and who he listens to is up for debate.

 

I think it had the possibility of actually destroying the US. and that isn't hyperbole.

 

for financial stuff he absolutely does. not the rest IMO

 

you arent' going to like this, i agree, but not for the same reason. i think obama and his administration was perceived as anti business and a lot of business owners were reluctant to hire and expand and that slowed the recovery.

 

if you ever have a chance to see Claus te Wildt from Fidelity go. I learn 10 things everytime I see him.

 

govt made hundreds of billions on the so called bailouts. and bernake is a hero.