COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

The US crossed an important milestone over the weekend with driving mobility crossing over pre-COVID baseline. The thought is that driving demand will actually be stronger than before once people go back to work because everyone just wants to be out of their houses. Add to that a glimmer of light on the vaccine front with the Moderna trials, and you are seeing a general risk-on; whether that be equities or commodities (oil and gas up 10% today)
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I'm pretty excited that FL and GA haven't had disastrous results so far. I was worried.

 

it's still early to tell i'd think. my brother in law who is in texas isn't taking any precautions at all. they are going to hotels, swimming in hotel pools, eating at restaurants. no [uck fay]s given

 

You’re so bad at this.

 

Okay? What is it? I'm curious as to your answer.

 

It was kind of a joke. But I’d have to say the main thing with Uni would be consistency

 

I hadn't seen this before, thanks. What does this mean for transmission risk, with people starting to move around more? Would other behaviors (masks, spacing) offset the expected increase in driving and going out?

 

Gotcha. Well he bucked the profile with the women's soccer lawsuit. And I agree with him on doing so.

 

Yeah. Well, the water’s fine over here

 

Higher mobility means more contacts/day - and R(t) goes up proportionally to contacts/day at a given level of infection in the population.

However, factors like warmer weather can decrease the inherent transmission risk - meaning those contacts are less efficient at spreading the virus. Masks mimic this in that they limit aerosols to some degree. Same with general social distancing, hand-washing, etc.

If all else stays the same and you increase contact, you will see a rise in infections IF you aren't getting pushback from herd immunity. Given that most antibody tests outside New York are coming in around 3-6% infection levels, I don't expect herd immunity effects yet. So, I think the key is "all else stays the same". If weather slows it down, things aren't the same as February/March.

 

If you guys really think I'm far out there, then you either aren't paying close enough attention, are way out there yourself or just need to get out and see some more people.

Otherwise, as far as this "lockdown" goes, we were never nearly as restrictive as a number of other countries.

 

I don't think you're that far out there at all, but then they think I'm out there too.

 

I respect his stances because of his consistency. I don't agree with him, but I can respect it

 

Well, you are. Uni is an escaped yankee, it's expected. You're a liberal from Union County, a statistical anomaly





This is a joke

 

there are half a dozen of us. Almost a holler full

 

Pretty much where I've been the whole time.

The only thing I've been cautious about is the elderly, of which I have kept my distance from.

 

Why?

Hospitalizations are 20% of infections. If you're a family of 5, point to one and send to the hospital. That isn't a cheap visit.

Even if you're one of the 80%, and you just do a telehealth with a primary for some antibiotics for a potential secondary pneumonia, you're at like $25 co pay and $7 antibiotics. That's still more expensive than a cloth mask off Etsy and some take out.

What's the benefit that outweighs the risk to be cavalier?

My worry isn't that I drop. My worry is that it's my wife or kid. I'd live in a bottle.

And if I get hospitalized, I worry my kid wakes up one day and finds his mom or is, not awake. It's not like anyone would know to check in on him. So I've set up day and night checks with family.

I'm reasonably healthy and young with no co-morbidities. I don't smoke. No high blood pressure. Normal BMI. I run three times a week. I have a low resting heart rate and a recovery rate near 70. But being a hard target is ingrained from my days in the military.

Part of being a hard target is taking every threat seriously, and gearing and planning properly.

I don't get the benefit to not do so.

 

The internet is littered with stories of people who thought it was overblown right until they or their immediate family ended up in the hospital.

 

Well good news is the hospitalization rate for your demographic is likely way lower than 20%.

 

I think it is 16% in Shelby County, based on age.