I feel like they got Michigan and Florida backward on the chart. That's much closer than other polls I have seen.
Florida will be very interesting in the number of new voters with the felon voting act. That's hundreds of thousands of possible new voters. Do they vote? Many are poorer people of color, so does this bode well for Biden? If they do, would the numbers matter more than just at the margins? Kind of an unknown out there.
I also don't buy the +7 for Florida with a +2 for Michigan for Biden. Michigan goes blue well before Florida.
Trump is losing support of seniors the most while gaining support with people of color and younger voters. He has to flip the senior trend to win
Not sure how much of an impact they will have, but this is why DeSantis has been fighting so hard to limit their voting. Florida is typically a close vote so a weighted shift in electorate could swing it.
Solid. If you need any help with the modeling I have a graphing calculator Needs new batteries though
I'm not sure he's gaining. I check them out religiously and there's always some variance between polls, but Trump has pushed up maybe a point or two. However, this has a lot to do with the polling agency's timing of the release. Typically, I try to gauge the movement by comparing the specific polls to their own last polls. Some of them have clear biases, but seeing how they move the numbers between their own polling gives a decent picture.
The crippling of the USPS is still a maturing story. I am curious to see what polls show in a few weeks as people are no longer getting their medications or able to send/receive business-related mail in a timely fashion. USPS is the "last mile" carrier for much of the US, even if you use UPS or Fed Ex. I.e., this is devastating to rural communities. I also thought purposely obstructing the mail was a federal crime, but I guess the rule of law is meaningless these days.
To be clear, this USPS slow down will kill people eventually if it has not already. This is a constitutionally mandated service.
1. Everything, EVERYTHING, he does is self-serving. 2. His supporters won't care, as long as it benefits him. They've long since placed their primary loyalty to him over the benefit of the country. This should be easy. It's the most egregious attempt to manipulate an election since Jim Crow days and admittedly so. My guess is this will linger long enough before people back down, but only after long enough to create complications in too narrow a time frame to fix. So, they get to say they didn't affect the mail in vote in the end, but, in all practicality did.
This USPS thing has me actually calling my Congressman and Senators tomorrow, for what good it will do. It is, without a doubt, the most egregious thing I have seen in my lifetime when it comes to voting.