The Clock Starts Ticking Now.

Win and losses are the only thing I judge the coaches performance by. I like the recruiting because it gives me fresh hope, but the .500 seasons get old fast

 

Agreed. Just predicting what will happen.

 

This year will be his last top 5 class if he doesn't start winning meaningful games.

 

It will depend on how big of a stink the base and the money make about 7 and 8 win seasons. He has recruited enough talent to get that the next 2 years.

I think he's gonna get more time than most people here want to see.

 

.

 

It's going to take a while to fire him with our leadership, if he can win 8 or 9 every year.

 

I believe that the following are reasonable means to establish fair expectations (others may disagree):

1. Tennessee will WIN those games:

a. Where they are FAVORED to win, and they are playing at HOME.
b. Where there is an EQUAL chance to win / lose, and they are playing at HOME.
c. Where they are FAVORED to win, and they are playing AWAY.

2. Tennessee will SPLIT those games:

a. Where there is an EQUAL chance to win / lose, and they are playing HOME or AWAY.
b. Where they are the UNDERDOG to win, and they are playing at HOME or AWAY.

If you agree, and share these beliefs, then the following seems to be an entirely reasonable expectation for next season:

Next Year's Schedule / Predicted Results:

[TABLE]
[TR][background-color:#f56b00]
[TH]Date[/TH]
[TH]Opp.[/TH]
[TH]@[/TH]
[TH]Odds - WIN[/TH]
[TH]Odds - LOSS[/TH]
[TH]Final Prediction[/TH]
[TH]Record to Date[/TH]
[/background-color][/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]9/5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bowling Green[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]9/12[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Oklahoma[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]9/19[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]W. Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]9/26[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Florida[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Arkansas[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Georgia[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]BYE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/24[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Alabama[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]LOSS[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Kentucky[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]South Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]North Texas[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]95%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Missouri[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]LOSS[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/28[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Vanderbilt[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]01/16[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bowl Game[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Neutral[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WIN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

And, if you want to break the season down by the odds (e.g. Favored, Even, Underdog):

[TABLE]
[TR]
[TH]Type Games[/TH]
[TH]# Games[/TH]
[TH]% All Games[/TH]
[TH]Predicted Record[/TH]
[TH]Winning %[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]FAVORED[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]EVEN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3-1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]UNDERDOG[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0-1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH]ALL[/TH]
[TH]13[/TH]
[TH]100%[/TH]
[TH]11-2[/TH]
[TH]85%[/TH]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Or, if you want to look at it by Location (e.g. Home, Away, Neutral)

[TABLE]
[TR]
[TH]Type Games[/TH]
[TH]# Games[/TH]
[TH]% All Games[/TH]
[TH]Predicted Record[/TH]
[TH]Winning %[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2-2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Neutral[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH]ALL[/TH]
[TH]13[/TH]
[TH]100%[/TH]
[TH]11-2[/TH]
[TH]85%[/TH]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Just my $.02

 

If you add up the percentages the expected value for wins is 8.55.

 

I added up the percentages and we had like eleventy billion % chance of winning.

 

Percentages are calculated by game, and prediction.

Later, percentages are meant to show the breakdown of each categorized value.

Maybe I got it wrong. It made sense to me, if that helps.

 

I'd put Arkansas at a 50/50 split.

They sit right between 2 much more urgently needed wins against SEC-East foes. To me, with a young team, it's a much more disposable game than Florida or Georgia are.

 

Convert the percentages to decimals to get expected values for wins and losses.

.9 +.5 + .9 +.6 +.6 + .5 +.3 +.8 +.7 +.95 +.5+ .8 + .5 = 8.55 Wins

.1+ .5+ .1 +.4 +.4 +.5 +.7 +.2 +.3 +.05 +.5 +.2 +.5 = 4.45 Losses

If your percentages are right and we played our schedule 30+ times, that's what you'd expect out average W-L to be: 8.55 - 4.45.

I personally think a good coach gets 9 regular season wins out of this team.

 

I totally get what you are saying, and are correct. He is treating each game as a discrete event, whereas you are actually looking at it from the perspective of a series of events.

 

Careful, 11-1 gets Butch a lifetime contract.

 

#1. Did you do this on your phone? #2. That's like your opinion, man. #3. Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

 

Likely Wins:
Bowling Green
West Carolina
Kentucky
North Texas
Vandy

Toss Ups favoring UT:
Missouri
South Carolina
Florida

Toss Ups favoring the opponent:
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Georgia

Likely loss:
Alabama

prediction
9-4 with bowl win

 

7-5... Losses to OU,Fla,Ark,Bammer,Mizz...Come back down to earth fellas.

 

Don't forget the Butch factor and we'll be breaking in an O/C that hasn't been in football in how many years, 2?

 

You're right KMF. 6-6. We still go to a bowl!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Yeah, but so does 8-4.