The Stock Market Thread

I think that is true

 

He got his all his NFL money in cash.

He endorsed a bitcoin company and took payment for that in bitcoin.

He clarified this not too long ago.

 

it’s nothing like 08. Consumer is very well off on average

 

I think we are in the recession, but it is not going to last long.

 

we’re not currently in a recession. Labor market and personal wealth is too strong. That isn’t to saw we aren’t about to be in one though

 

We’re in a technical recession but the labor market is still running red hot.

It’s a weird time and a lot of historical period cycles lining up at the same time. We’re in a huge transition period and it’s not going to play out quick

 

I think any slow downs economically are more due to consumer push back on high prices and longer than usual lead times on goods or services. It's much more temporary than 2008. Imo

 

Ya maybe I am just older, but in 08 it felt like the world was going on pause and I had little to no avenue for professional work. Now it feels like everyone is looking for bodies for anything.

I saw that Yellowstone was sounding the alarm because they did not have enough bodies to shut down roads and help guests during the flooding there. They have the same number of staff as they did in 1975, which is preposterous.

I know the Washington memorial parkway by DC has like 3 LE. 3. For what is essentially a highly trafficked highway and scenic park. Every private business has a help wanted sign.

And it isn't that no one wants to work, it is that there a lot of boomers who no longer do and gen z is small.

 

Agreed. I know there are some people out there still not working just because they don't want to but it's not like a ton more than in years past (probably about the same). It's more we need bodies as businesses have been growing at crazy paces for the last 4 years. I do expect the job market to slow some over the next few quarters but honestly it won't be that big of deal as there will still be a good amount of open jobs out there. People just might not be able to job hop to the next best thing like they have for the last few years.

 

i think we will start to see a softening in the labor market as companies work off existing inventories and are anticipating a recession so they put new hires on hold. It can become a self fulfilling prophecy even if we aren’t in a recession now

 

tsa says airports are at an all time high. Higher than precovid. People saved money during Covid and are now spending it on travel

 

my buddy just got laid off and my first thought was he’s the only unemployed person I know. Obviously antidotal, but it did strike me

 

I know some key folks in the RV industry and they are starting to lay people off. They are basically getting their employment back to 2019 levels, they had to add a ton of employees over the last couple years to get back logs of orders out and now they are starting to over produce. I could see the unemployment rate jumping some over the next few quarters but really most of it will be because of companies that are just getting back to more normal operating levels. Its not going to be like that in every industry so I don't think the unemployment jump will be anything alarming. The growth some industries had over the last 2 years was pandemic related which created quite a few jobs that were pretty much always going to go away.

There is still going to be plenty of jobs out there. imo

 

First quarter was negative growth. Do you think we best that in 2nd quarter? It’s possible because it was only slight in first quarter but it seems we could be in contraction.

 

I think you are 100% spot on. We are going to see places that are overproducing start cutting back, but we just have so many jobs right now that it may not amount to much overall effect.

 

I guess I think we are slight negative for Q2 and he doesn't. It's going to be close.

 

I've got a friend who got laid off from mortgage underwriting due to volume. Not going to lie that is made me pause.

 

The non-Big 4/national firm accounting industry is somewhat closely watching what they do. I think a lot are hoping that they do let people go during this time to help fill in lots of open spots downstream.

 

Yep, people in those jobs might just need to change industries when they get laid off but I think it will all balance out in the end.

 

I have a college friend who lives/works in northwest IN. He commented a lot on how RV production facilities couldn't get enough people during the pandemic.