The Stock Market Thread

Why would you not want to factor inflation in?

 

yes but inflation has been so low we haven't really payed attention to the effect on real gdp. typically you'd see job losses if the economy was contracting. today we saw 300k gain.

 

Covid allowed me to move back to Knoxville even though my company doesn’t have an office here. I always thought I’d want to come back but didn’t foresee a scenario where I’d be able to do it early in my career before Covid. Now that I’m back I really don’t want to leave, so I’ll be a bit pickier than I may have been if I was still in a big city. Plus, there are plenty of attractive offers I could get now that are fully remote or mostly remote, but generally speaking I believe doing that when peers are in office could limit growth opportunities long term even though a company may deny that being the case.

Also what I do doesn’t fall off during downturns so that changes the calculus a bit.

 

You want a local job and I can have you one by sunset.

 

Oh no, Card is head hunting for the East Tennessee Vampire Guild.

 

There’s cracks starting to show.

New construction is about to bring a bunch of inventory on the market and you’re already seeing builders having to start offering upgrades to buyers like granite and whatnot instead of their being a bidding war.

also a bunch of people that were holding out on putting their houses on the market while it was going straight up are now motivated to do so before they think it will slow down.

 

I think the technical definition is real GDP. So technically we may be in a recession. But we’ve seen such a sudden spike in inflation Q1 over Q1 I don’t know if real GDP is the best measure. If inflation sustains then it likely would be.

But all that said - we will by definition be in a recession if Q2 real GDP is negative.

 

It's blows my mind how many people are paying cash for houses and land around me

 

Maybe this is where all those missing PPP loans went.

 

It wouldn't surprise me

 

I didn't realize the fraud on this was so huge and so well known. Holy shit.

But how do you spend that money? How do you launder billions of dollars? Do you ship this money all over seas? Even then, it is going to leave a paper trail, it would seem. How can you hide 100+ billion in theft?

 

you don’t need to launder it. All you need is for the govt to not ask for proof that you were eligible and eligible to get it forgiven . I think anything under $250k they weren’t asking for proof

 

not only not asking on it but basically incentivized the fraud.

banks were making money processing them. President of our bank called me and told me to just come by and give him my schedule F and I could get 30k no questions or strings attached.

 

yup. all you had to do was say you were impacted by covid to get the first round. no proof required.

 

And you could spend it on yourself? So as long as you paid taxes on it, you could give yourself a 30k bonus?

If so...Jesus.

 

I didn’t do it but yeah could have bought or done anything I wanted with it

 

Kind of explains some of that inflation.

 

i mean officially you have to spend on payroll or other essential expenses but money is fungible. . .

 

the second stimulus when the economy was fine might be the dumbest piece of legislation in decades and that is saying something

 

yeah increasing money supply while goods and services production is being cut is going to lead to inflation