The Stock Market Thread

We have reclining Buddhas.

 

Would smash. But don't want corona...

 

the big one in Bangkok has prints on his toes

 

Would piihb.

 

Soooo. Sale on Amazon next week?

 

Best week in 45 years

 

sometimes i know a thing or two

 

Not that you were calling the bottom (for now) on the 19th, but you were within 4 days of the bottom. Nice.

 

I have a head time thinking there's much more upside at this time. Feel like we should be trading sideways for the next several months.

 

3 ways it can go, and none of them will matter in 30 years if I leave it in. So I leave it in.

 

I think the market is lower a month from now

 

2 of those days were the weekend so 2 trading days

 

Didn’t even pay attention, but way to spike the football .

How concerned are you about a potential corporate credit crisis?

 

Marshawn Lynch riding the injury cart.gif

 

not very. Banks and corporations are very well capitalized

 

I apologize if I am stating the obvious here. But I am in a weird dark place right now where I think that 2019 may be a long time high water mark for the global economy. It’s Great Depression time. Many, many people (like me) are not going to resume much extra consumption until there is a vaccine. A black hole has opened up in the service sector. Most small businesses (not just the weak ones or the restaurants) look to me like they will be wiped out because most of them are superfluous to people’s’ everyday lives. I still think the stock market gets cut in half this year and sticks there for awhile. I’m trying to figure out what to do with my measly investment. Maybe just stuff a mattress. A v-shaped recovery does not look in the least likely to me . People who are saying that the fundamentals are still good are kidding themselves. Social distancing is the new fundamental and it is terrible for economic activity.

As capital markets slowly implode, there won’t be any coming back. The govt can end the shutdown and encourage everyone to go back, but that does not change the underlying psychology that a deadly virus is out there. I know I don’t plan on flying on any planes, or attending any ballgames, or eating at Three Amigos etc. until there’s a vaccine. How is it worth it? Even if it is rational for everyone to go back to normal ( if we behaved as a herd) because there would be less death and devastation from the virus that from a 5+ year deep depression, no one would. Individually, it is not in my best interest to swipe my debit card for services that are superfluous. It’s potentially a prisoners dilemma. I honestly wonder if this is the calculation that China has made. Unlike us, they have the ability to suppress information if they believe it is in their best interest. An economy built on debt and services just can’t survive a pandemic in a world of instantly available media.

 

market is already pricing in a major recession

 

I think the real question is going to be if this is changes consumers and the crazy consumption that Americans do on Shit that we really don’t need

 

Highly doubtful that it does

 

I think they are pricing in 2008. I think it’s 2008 x 4. There is going to be a huge negative multiplier when 20% of the workforce is unable to produce. We’ve never seen anything like it at least since the 30s. There are real systemic issues with supply and demand that will take a long long time to heal.