Dooley Already Lowering Expectations

I will NEVER pull against Tennessee, but....

A loss to NC State in the opening game would certainly set the train hurdling toward the 6-6 cliff. And I think that it will be a toss-up / shoot-out style game that either team is perfectly capable of winning. Everyone is talking about FL, GA, BAMA, etc. - as they should - but you're likely going to know how this season will go when they leave Atlanta.

 

Oh hell, I hope to the Lord not. Unless this year is 10 wins or better, and recruiting absolutely explodes, is the only way I see Dooley being successful past Bray/Hunter/Rogers.

 

TD, you could have hit me with the flying tiger drop kick of death while wearing those stiletto heels that NY likes for you to use when stomping all over his body square in the jimmy and it would have caused less pain than your post.

I need to get my Prozac script renewed.

 

TennyD: I prefer your inspirational posts.

This was depressing...because it's true.

 

I switched to Lexapro.

 

I don't see why Dooley should get a pass for a huge drop off after Bray leaves. Bray isn't even his recruit.

 

You could make a pretty convincing argument that Hunter wasn't either but that's a whole other rant.

Orgeron and Kiffin were the first to offer Da'Rick and Nance together. That got Tennessee's foot in the door too.

 

I remember UGA recruitniks were already calling Da'Rick to Tennessee way before Kiffin left. The wheels were certainly in motion. If we can't win without those three in 2013, all the talk about how great the last few recruiting classes have been will have been way, way overblown.

 

Point taken.

But name another instance where he's been disallowed from skating by on an excuse, however thin or misapplied it may be?

Hell, at this point, he doesn't even have to make excuses anymore, what with thousands of orange-colored apologists falling all over themseles, feverishly working to formulate and purport them on his behalf.

I don't want to incite the whole "bash Fulmer" thing, but the longer this Dooley thing goes - where his innumerous and blatant insufficiencies are not only accepted, but seemingly embraced and defended - the more his last 5-7 years on the job make sense, and the more surprised I am that he was ever fired.

 

Empty seats.

The product on the field doesn't really matter as long as they're making money. When the money stops, so does the coach's tenure

 

Randolph, Maggitt and AJ are the only 3 out of the past two classes that have looked worth a damn imo. Clear had a great spring and Downs looks like a solid player. Tiny has a chance to be a special player. Coleman looked lost at times but I believe he'll become a pretty good DB.

But even if all those guys pan out, the recruiting bit is overblown. Tennessee has recruited well nationally since Neyland was boarding trains to go to New York.

 

Well....

We have those three on the roster today, and both Bama and Florida coming to Knoxville...and it's still open for some debate if he can even get to 8 wins (which I will guarantee you that upwards of 85-90% of all D1 coaches could achieve that, with this team)...

So, what massive improvements do we believe those remaining players will make between '12 and '13, and what laundry list of stud recruits do you think he's capable of signing that could have a week-to-week impact in their freshmen season at the SEC level - to make anyone believe that '13 won't be gigantic step backwards, having lost those three and travelling to both FL and Bama?

Or, more simply, do this equation:
1. Predict this season's record (example: 8-4)
2. Now take away those three players, and again predict next season's record (example: 4-8)
3. Now, predict the season if the home and away were flipped (i.e. Georgia is now at home, FL and Bama now on road, etc.)
4. Now, consider the improvements of remaining players over the course of a year (at CDD's current rate of player development) and the influx of "difference-makers" from one of his atypical recruiting classes (high-character 3 stars, felonious 4 stars)

Ta-Da! You just accurately predicted Tennessee's 2013 season.

I count 6 wins, maybe 7, absolute maximum.

As I (sincerely) believe that they can't help but win 9 games this season - that'll put Dooley's season win totals at:

2010 - 6
2O11 - 5
2012 - 9 (in my opinion, absolute best-case scenario)
2013 - 6 (again, best case, IMO - with the loss of Big 3)

Four-year total: 26, an average of 6 wins per year and some change

And this will buy him a fifth season. That is, unless lightning strikes in any of those years and he wins two more than he should (and say lands a BCS bowl)....then he's here for the long haul. Of course, a calamitous failure could impact it in the other direction, too, but it's unlikely that it'll bottom out to a sufficient degree to get him ran off before year 5.

 

Disagree with Tenny D. 7 wins or less and Dooley is gone. I'm not convinced he is back with 8. Hart may only have 5 years left, but he wants to leave a legacy and he knows what Kirby Smart is.

On the recruiting side, I'm calling Camion Patrick a total headache not worth it now.

 

Agreed. Expectations aren't lowered because he's failed to meet them.

What's the deal with Camion? Why is he trying to transfer high schools?

 

I've heard the same, Tigger.

But, he's going to win 8 games next season, rendering all of this as a mute point.

Some (no doubt known liars) would say that Smart's made it known that he's stayed put, for now, believing the gig on Rocky Top would soon be available...still others would say that his confidence stems from a gentlemen's agreement already having been made to that effect....but only IF it comes available. The problem with that plan is that CDD is going to do enough this season to keep the wolves at bay, IMO, JMHO, TIFWIW. What's worse, if CDD does enough to turn down the thermostat this season, Smart's decision to continue waiting would likely no longer be a viable one, and he moves onward -and undoubtedly upward.

Still others (admittedly, pathological liars and those suffering with delusions) would say that had Hart been on watch when Kiffin left, instead of Hambone, that Smart would have been announced in Knoxville before Kiffin would have been introduced in LA.

So, I believe you 100%....but it's just not going to materialize according to that plan.

 

I can't see a definite 8 wins on the schedule. There should be 8 or 9, but Tennessee is handicapped by the head coach.

If NCSU beats Tennessee to start the season, Dooley won't make it to November.

 

Oh, and as a very quick aside:

If you've ever wondered how panic, and the inability to maintain reason, even amidst an unexpected and emergent crisis, can quickly and easily turn an unfortunately bad event into a calamitous tragedy of comical and long-lasting proportion of errors....

Now you know, because we're living it.

Everybody wants to believe the best about everyone, until it comes (as my Papaw would say) "nut cutting time" - and then you see that any amount of hope and wishful thinking is no suitable substitute for someone who possesses a cool head, clear vision and an unwavering ability to continue effectively leading forward.

We didn't learn that lesson when Hambone was hired as AD, and we're not learning it now, again, with Dooley.

And it'll continue to happen, until we do learn it, and commit to correcting it.

 

So at 8wins Hart has no choice but to keep him? I don't believe that is true. Much more is at stake than an extension for Dooley. I think the tide of opinion behind closed doors that Derek is not the future of Tennessee football has swelled. Dooley is in very very deep water.

 

When he walked in Bray was a FR. Even if he leaves after this year Dooley has had plenty of time to sign UT an All SEC level QB that is ready at that point. He may have one on the roster right now.

I don't buy it either.

 

8 wins doesn't force UT to keep him but, depending on the 4 losses, it will be hard to fire him.