Electoral Map

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by cotton, May 4, 2016.

  1. cotton

    cotton Stand-up Philosopher

  2. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/republicans-have-a-massive-electoral-map-problem-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-donald-trump/

     
  3. A-Smith

    A-Smith Chieftain

    Pennsylvania should be a battleground.
     
  4. A-Smith

    A-Smith Chieftain

    I think Trump has a better chance at Pennsylvania (and maybe Michigan) than he has in Florida.
     
  5. VolDad

    VolDad Super Moderator

  6. Tenacious D

    Tenacious D The law is of supreme importance, or no importance

    Florida is safely Trump. Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play.

    As VD said, look at voter turnout. No poll required.

    And, oh, will the media show Trump as far back in any poll they can, and for as long as they can.
     
  7. Tenacious D

    Tenacious D The law is of supreme importance, or no importance

    Perhaps HRC needs to dispatch with the gentleman from Vermont, before we start counting her chickens.
     
  8. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

    Florida is most definitely in play, and Michigan and Pennsylvania are Dem favorable states, though, most assuredly, in play for either side. As far as the article from VD, I am shocked, shocked!, that an "analysis" by Breitbart would conclude something negative for Clinton. But, for their sake, I'll end the suspense and let Breitbart know that Indiana will go for Trump. However, extrapolating their numbers from last night for the general election isn't as straightforward as it seems as there are a number of other factors they conveniently ignore and trying to tie Indiana last night to the rest of the country voting in November is silly.

    As the OP noted, though, the presidential map, in its current state, is more favorable towards a Democratic candidate, especially as we get to be a more urban, diverse society, which is the reason I continually state, among other reasons, why a Clinton victory is still more likely than a Trump victory. Trump has less room for failure than does Hillary.
     
  9. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

    Bernie is done.
     
  10. Tenacious D

    Tenacious D The law is of supreme importance, or no importance

    All fair.

    Florida is in play, technically, but it goes Trump. Not easily, but high single digits.

    Where else does Hillary go? This is what I mean by she's at her high-water mark. She has no serious shot at GA, NC, WV, IA or most GOP leaning / battleground states, save a few smallish ones. The absolute best she can hope for is an unchanging map. She won't make new inroads. She neither has the message nor the raw charisma of President Obama - and all of the historical importance of his two campaigns.

    And things are already changing. Barring a catastrophe or Romney-level incompetence, Trump will win Ohio. He has more than better odds to not only put both PA & MI in play, but with increasing momentum in each - and I think he definitely wins one, and has a better than a punchers chance of winning both.

    If he wins both PA or MI and holds serve in FL and OH, it's ballgame. If he wins just one of PA or MI, and holds OH and FL, it's still likely over.

    Not only can HRC not expand her map, but she damned sure won't be able to do so while being required to spend both time and money in Michigan, PA - two states that Dems largely ignore, and where every vote that Trump earns is a two-vote swing, and on top of what she'll need to do in WI.

    Comparing what HRC is doing to President Obama in '08 and '12 is almost as foolhardy as trying to compare what Trump is now doing to what McCain and Romney did, in those same years. It's not just that HRC can't maintain what Obama did - but also that Trump is destroying the feeble attempts of the last two (or ten) schmucks.

    Prop up any poll you want, and HRC's supporters can laugh while they can, because they are equally grand and politically dangerous dillusions.
     
  11. Tenacious D

    Tenacious D The law is of supreme importance, or no importance

    HRC continues to assure everyone of that, and yet, each time I turn around, she keeps losing to him.
     
  12. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

    She has won 25 states to Bernie's 19 and has 3 million more votes than Sanders. She's hitting a good spot here in the next couple of weeks and California will be beneficial to her. She also has the delegate math well in her favor. Even Bernie knows he's done and simply wants to take his platform to the convention.
     
  13. Beechervol

    Beechervol Super Moderator

    Bernie landed a few shots but hes cut and bleeding out.

    He's won just enough to press on but not enough to be a real threat late.
     
  14. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

    You speak of delusions, but I haven't the faintest idea where you are getting your numbers, much less your certainty about how the states will play out. Florida will be in the high single digits? Based upon what? No shot in Iowa? Why? You think everyone is going to suddenly see things the way you want them to be seen? Ohio will be Trump's for sure? Why?

    I'm mystified as to where this unwarranted confidence is coming from because, as of now, Trump would lose and lose very badly in an election against Hillary. And, I'm not even comparing Hillary to Obama, who is well and beyond either of them in terms of running a winning general election campaign on so many levels, but the way in which these states actually vote and have voted for weak candidates like a Kerry or Gore for the Dems. I mean, you have been floating New York out there in your zeal for the Orange One, as if New York City suddenly fell into the Atlantic.

    Perhaps, though, you are right, and public opinion will swing dramatically in favor of Trump as the general election moves along, but I doubt it. I see two known commodities in Trump and Clinton, one of which is thoroughly despised by a large portion of the voting base and the other one with a nearly 20 point greater unfavorability rating than her.
     
  15. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    Am I crazy to think Trump should tap Kasich as his VP, for Ohio?
     
  16. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

    No, you're not.
     
  17. Beechervol

    Beechervol Super Moderator

    I think that would be a solid choice and not just as a campaign advantage.
     
  18. Beechervol

    Beechervol Super Moderator

    Aint sold Kasich would take it tho.
     
  19. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain

    Clinton got more votes in all 3 of those states. Even in MI where she lost.

    And voter turnout is skewed when people are flocking to vote against someone.
     
  20. IP

    IP Advanced Pruitt Apologetics Bot

    In a scenario with open primaries most places, he wins going away.

    In a true level playing field, they'd be locked in a tight battle.


    Anyone thinking Clinton showed anything but her vulnerability this far is kidding themselves. She's every bit as flawed as Trump is, in terms of how the electorate perceives them as a whole.
     

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