Official 2018 8th Maxim Fantasy Football League Thread

Yeah, I'm with IP on this one. Missing the playoffs second in points is rough, and counting pre-draft scoring is absolute garbage, but the schedule is what it is and a lot of the rest of that stuff happens to everyone.

Just in this league for me:

• Top picks were Barkley (hurt), Mixon (hurt) and Taylor (benched for a while)
• Drafted Antonio Gibson and traded him, and he's now randomly one of the league TD leaders as a converted WR in a bad offense
• Traded a lot for Golladay just for him to immediately get hurt and never play again for me
• Chose AB over Chark because I was worried about Jake Luton at QB, then watched Chark score 21 on my bench as I lost by 0.2. Started Chark the next few weeks and of course Luton completely fell apart

And IP wasn't saying Hill was unlucky because of his point total, but because of the bomb TD he scored when the entire Chiefs sideline just didn't realize he caught it. With the bonuses for 40-yard plays and the fact that IP has Mahomes, that's about a 20-point play for him. IP could miss the playoffs just because of that play, and I could miss because of that 0.2 when everything went wrong, but I still would call harping on that "[itch bay]ing."

 

For the playoffs, I don't think I can catch any of Dickson Fire, Tenny's Dad or First and Plenty, so for the last spot I need Just-a-Brees to lose, and I either need IP to lose or I need to outscore him by 50-60 again. Indy will probably be right behind me now, so probably roughly the same boat.

 

exactly on the Hill play. it isn't obvious, but the TD was caught, was 40 plus, and was thrown by my qb too. it was massively costly that the call was missed.

 

The Hill play made 0 difference in the outcome of our game this week. None. I agree that it's unlucky, but it literally didn't matter, so I'm not sure how it compares to the stuff I listed, all of which directly led to me not making the playoffs.

Now, if IP misses the playoffs because someone else finishes with the same record and more Points For than him, I will have absolutely no problem with him coming in here and [itch bay]ing up a storm. It will be 100% justified because the missed call was egregious. But it just doesn't make sense to [itch bay] about something that doesn't matter and likely won't matter.

If memory serves and my calculations were correct, Dickson Fire and Tenny's Dad are in (each will be 8-4 after this week). Then you have the two 7-5 teams, First and Plenty and Just-a-Brees playing each other. One of them will win and take the 3rd spot with an 8-5 finish. The last spot will come down to the teams who finish 7-6. That could be me (Bron), the loser of the last game I mentioned, Cleveland Steamers, and Global Warming. Even if I finish with that record, there's no way I'm catching up to the pack in Points For. Similarly, Cleveland Steamers is looking at roughly a 62 pt deficit just to catch Global Warming, which would likely require an epic meltdown.

So, in all likelihood, assuming everyone takes care of business, it comes down to IP and whoever loses the game between First and Plenty and Just-A-Brees. If Just-A-Brees loses, IP likely makes the playoffs, as he will likely enter the week with a 50+ point advantage in Points For. If First and Plenty loses, that's when IP gets in trouble, as he will enter the week at roughly a 19-28 pt deficit.

So, really, the only way that Tyreek Hill catch matters is if First and Plenty loses in Week 14 and then beats IP for the last playoff spot on Points For. And, really, for it to truly matter, the deficit by which IP misses the playoffs would have to be less than the total points it could have added (what's that number, 17?). It could happen, and if it does, IP has every right to come in here and complain as much as he wants. But other than that, it's irrelevant.

 

I'm with you on the injuries. Barkley and Mixon are similar to McCaffrey and Ekeler. But again, I told you all I didn't mention everything. I drafted Mixon in the 3rd round. That's my first 3 picks out for extended periods with injuries. I don't think Taylor can fall into the same boat as the others. You drafted a guy that didn't live up to his potential. That's on you. You don't see me complaining about trading for Clyde Edwards-Helaire in my 3rd league and then him sucking every week after. Because that was my bad decision.

You drafted Gibson in the 9th round. I agree that it's unlucky, but it's not really comparable to the injuries. You're missing out on points that were never supposed to be there in the first place.

Golladay injury is definitely a good example. Again, I'm all about injuries being unlucky.

You choosing one guy over the other doesn't belong in this conversation. I didn't include any of those in my example, and now you've included two in yours. If I start adding stuff like that, my list would be significantly longer. Do we want to talk about the week that a playoff contender beat me 180 to 145, when I would have beaten every single other team that played that week? You don't see me complaining about OBJ's injury. I took Devin Singletary in the 9th round of our league (same round you took Gibson)... how did that turn out for me?

The biggest issue is the stuff that can't be helped. Injuries are completely out of our control, so they're always tough. Scheduling and match ups our out of my control, so they're frustrating. Guys not fielding a team at the end of the season is extra tough, especially when it costs you. And for all of that stuff to just build on top of itself... Idk. I don't think what you listed really compares, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure I offered you trades for both Mixon and Taylor at different points. I wanted Robinson but was definitely willing to settle for Mixon, and was even willing to take Taylor, up to a certain point. But the only one you would offer me was like, David Johnson.

So, again, some of that falls back on you.

 

you have some sort of personality type that is very much centered around your own personal experience as having more weight as to defining the world as a whole than observation beyond yourself. I'm not saying you haven't had a string of unlucky breaks, but I am saying you are not objective when it comes to matters affecting you. if you don't have a problem, no problem really exists or it is a mistake someone made. if you have a problem, it is inherently unfair to you.

I, too, could be wrong. but I don't think you are having a unique or very uncommon experience, I think this is what many teams on the edge experience. No different than playing the spread in gambling, many things contribute to an outcome and when it doesn't go your way one can pick apart a million butterfly wing flaps that led to it.

 

It’s crazy how nearly every post he makes boils down to this. Wonder what the psychiatric term for it is?

Like Pruitt deciding to put in Shrout, who led two straight 95 yard drives, which nearly matched his career total and more than doubled UT’s offensive output up until that point, to back door cover what was pretty much a guaranteed -16.5 win.

It shouldn’t count because he wasn’t projected to do that!

 

At least Nashvol tried to throw out specific examples for comparison sake (even if they fell short, imo), rather than just making broad statements without a whole lot of evidence to back them up.

Meanwhile, there's evidence to the contrary laced all throughout my post about the Tyreek Hill situation. It didn't happen to me, yet I recognize the absurdity of you potentially missing the playoffs because of it. I pointed out that it hasn't affected anything yet (which is 100% true), and then admitted that, should it lead to you missing the playoffs, it would be uniquely bad luck rivaling the stuff I listed out from my ESPN league. So in what way can you claim that "if I don't have a problem, no problem really exists or is a mistake that someone made?" You literally have an example disproving that stance 3 posts above yours.

I think it's normal for teams "on the edge" to experience multiple injuries to early round draft picks. I think it's normal for teams "on the edge" to experience tough scheduling that leads to an average overall record despite top of the league point performance. I think it's normal for teams "on the edge" to get stuck in tough week 13 match ups against a top of the league player. I think it's normal for teams "on the edge" to get screwed at the end of the season by people who know they have missed the playoffs and stop paying attention to their teams. And obviously, it's normal for teams "on the edge" to be negatively impact by individual player performances that directly lead to missing the playoffs.

I understand that nearly everyone experiences 1 or more of these. I don't think it's normal to experience all of these at once. Again, you don't really see me complaining all that much about the misfortune I've had in our league. It definitely exists, but I don't think it's unique. It's just part of how fantasy goes.

The piling on of bad luck I've experienced in my ESPN league is unlike anything I've ever experienced in Fantasy. It's unlike anything I've ever seen play out for anyone else in Fantasy, though, obviously, I don't have as much of a direct view of other people's teams.

 

I was in the chat when that happened. It was definitely awful and extremely unfortunate, though you could pretty easily back up a claim that garbage time leads to more successful drives and points for the losing team on a somewhat regular basis. Defenses loosen up to keep everything in front of them and waste time, plus backups are usually in at that point.

Again, very unfortunate, and much bigger stakes, obviously. But I wouldn't argue that it's more statistically unlikely than the stuff I listed out for my ESPN league, if you can even make that comparison in the first place.

 

we've posted on this board enough that I have learned not to invest a lot of time digging into exhaustive specifics. if you are unwilling to consider what I am saying enough to consider how ANYONE could describe a similar string of events or outcomes that individually seem unlikely and collectively seem virtually impossible except for the fact that each discrete event had to have an outcome and any combination of sufficiently numerous events creates the certainty that whatever combination of events occurs, it will be a low probability and that if it governs a contest, someone will be on the short side of it... then specifics will just be dismissed in moments after minutes of my effort to being them.

it's statistics, man. you control who you draft and the roster choices. that's it. this is not a sudoku puzzle or even chess. you are not guaranteed the ability to win, and you actually can't win by your own agency alone. just like life.

 

Team spread is the macro projection of the sum of every individual’s contribution. If you take the spread and O/U line you can get the “projected points” for each team.

The micro portion is each player’s projected success. It’s why you can also bet on individual player’s O/U yards/TDs/Ints/etc. So it’s safe to say that part of that spread analysis was factoring in QB play, which they didn’t account for the 3rd stringer racking up 190 yards and 2 TDs in the last 6 minutes.

How, in any reasonable look at it, would it not be a suitable comparison? All fantasy football is is an accumulation of micro-player bets, hoping that the sum of yours beat the projected point spread and yours opponents’ don’t. The only difference is that Vegas is really, really good with their analysis and projections, while Yahoo isn’t.

 

I've 100% considered what you are saying. I don't think you're properly evaluating what each of us is saying.

My initial post in this conversation was "Woo man, my luck in my ESPN League sucks." That's it.

From there, I think you can fairly characterize my stance as being that my luck has been extremely poor, poorer than anything I've ever experienced in fantasy, and likely poorer than what most other people in a similar position experience. At no point have I taken it as far as to say no one has ever had poorer luck than what I'm having in my ESPN League - just that my poor luck has been pretty uniquely poor. In other words, I've probably characterized it as being top 5% of poor luck rather than top 1% of poor luck.

Your first true response was essentially "Shit happens. Every week, to every team." You're basically saying that the poor luck I've experienced isn't unique. It's average. There are people who experience that degree of poor luck regularly.

If you think my poor luck is average/not unique, you should only be holding me to the standard of proving that it's uniquely poor, more poor than the average poor.

But then you come in here talking about how I'm not considering how "ANYONE could describe a similar string of events or outcomes that individually seem unlikely and collectively seem virtually impossible..." That's a different standard. Of course, someone out there has had a similarly unlikely string of events that lead to a seemingly virtually impossible outcome happen to them. Probably a fair amount of someones. But not so many someones as to prove that my poor luck is just run of the mill poor luck that you see in any average league.

 

every person's total season output is virtually impossible. it just happens to be the combination of events that actually occurred, as opposed to the infinite number that didn't. other people had their top picks injured. pretty sure my top 3 picks had injuries a couple of years ago. that's what makes some teams lose so that others win.

what position is usually picked a lot early? running back. which position has the most contact and most injuries? running back. A 4th year 5'11 200 lb starting running back on a running team getting banged up isn't lightning striking twice.

 

Yeah, I know. That's why I didn't come in here using just the injuries to my first 3 draft picks (McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Mixon) as the only justification for why I think my luck is specifically poor.

Why are you still arguing as if the injuries are the only thing contributing to my position? They're just one piece of the puzzle.

 

IP is making the point better than I did. If you miss the playoffs and are good, there's a good chance you can find some absurd near-miss (and likely many) over the course of a season.

Indy, if it makes you feel better, feel free to reframe the Chark thing as "Pats D against an 0-12 team got outscored by Lamical Perine and I lost by 0.2". I'm sure if I did a deep dive I could find some missed call, or sack changed to a negative QB run, that likely cost me a playoff spot by itself, but that comes with the territory. There are plenty of other weeks, for me and probably for both of us, where if I had made better decisions this wouldn't have come into play.

Your situation is a little extra ridiculous because of your point total, but things like "Tyler Boyd type scores long TD" happen to tons of teams every week. I definitely would say that pre-draft weeks shouldn't be counted in the standings, but it's a little late to make that argument to the league commish now.

I guess my thoughts on what I see you saying are as follows:

"This bad luck is insanely frustrating" - I agree, as someone who probably gets more invested in fantasy than I should. But you won't get much sympathy, because most people have their own issues and more likely just don't care.

"I have the worst luck here this year" - sure, probably true as the second place scorer missing the playoffs, but most here have had their own bad luck.

"I have the worst luck by a thousand miles and none of you can present a comparable scenario and this is why I stopped fantasy" - nah. Generally, the injuries and over/underperforming relative to projections are everyday fantasy occurrences, and you've had them happen a little more than usual or at unusually inopportune times - which really does suck, but IMO isn't unique.

 

Really shitty luck is this guy’s:
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/10/draftkings-nfl-stat-correction-1-million-bad-beat/amp

 

last week I won because of that garbage baltimore touchdown pass at the end of the game. that could be the difference in someone making the playoffs.

 

ooof.

 

You and I approach fantasy similarly, and I can tell that you were a bit more willing to actually read and consider what I posted, so I appreciate that.

Losing by 0.2 is tough, but:

1. Pointing out a single specific event that leads to missing the playoffs isn't really the same thing. ALL of the stuff I'm listing had happen in order for me to miss it. And each individual piece was random at best and heavily unlikely at worst.

2. Again, my stance isn't really based on stuff like this. I lost in our league this week largely because a 5-6 Pats team shut out and beat down the Chargers 45-0 despite their starting QB only throwing for 69 yards. Like, what the [uck fay]? But again, I had control over starting 3 Chargers this week (though I still state that I would have started Lamar had I known with 100% certainty he was going to play tonight), so I can't claim I didn't have control over it. It was bad luck but also a bad decision. I take ownership of that.

Yeah, I get that the Tyler Boyd thing doesn't really fit in the overall discussion. It's why I didn't include it in my individual list a number of posts back, and because, ultimately, I still lose this week even if it didn't happen. It was frustrating at the time, which was when I posted, but it's not a key piece of my overall stance.

That's a fair, and reasonable assessment. At no point has my stance been "I have the worst luck by a thousand miles and none of you can present a comparable scenario and this is why I stopped fantasy." That said, most of your push back has been about the injuries and the poor performances, which are probably the smallest pieces of my argument. You've paid a lot of attention to my 2nd most Points For, which I think is extremely relevant. But you haven't really acknowledged that I've had the most Points Against, which I thought was odd after seeing how much stock you put in the Points For piece. And I'm a bit surprised that you and others haven't put a bit more stock in the Week 13 match up ridiculousness. If I play any other team that week, I'm in the playoffs. If Big Boy Henry and the Boys or Team Smith play any other teams (aside from just flip flopping opponents) that week, I'm in the playoffs. If Big Boy Henry and the Boys' opponent just plugs in an active TE and/or an active Defense, I'm almost certainly in the playoffs. It goes well beyond the more normal "I got a bad final week match up" piece.

But I get it. Most people commenting probably haven't even read the entirety of most of my posts to be able to truly consider how poor my luck has actually been. It's not happening to them, so why should they give a shit? And if no one had responded or even acknowledged that I posted, that would be the end of it.

But if you actually read everything I outlined, and your response is "Shit happens. Every week, to every team," I think you're selling my situation a bit short.