POLITICS President Trump: 100+ Mornings After (Term 1 Complete)

Or to get the votes to impeach or convict for that matter

 

I forgot about that weird rule. Speaker Trump 2023 it looks like.

 

Great. An unserious idiot who uses the job solely to settle debts and peddle phony conspiracy nonsense. Sounds about like the GOP today.

I don't think for a second it will happen and I'm not even sure they'll get the House. The threat of Trump as Speaker would be a fascinating deal for voter turnout, though, but it wouldn't be a good thing.

 

You want to bet on who wins the house? Republicans are going to win easily. The redistricting made it even easier. I highly doubt he can get enough Republicans though to let him have the job.

 

Yes, the gerrymandering makes it more likely the Republicans will regain the House, even with a likely lower vote total. However, this isn't as sure a thing, right now, as you might think. I'm going with about a 60-40 chance of the House turning over next year to the GOP. The Senate is 50-50.

 

I'm at 90% the house will go to Republicans. The Senate will stay with the Democrats.

 

There are so many weird variables and the time frame is so far out, it is difficult to say, at this point. I actually think hinting at Trump as Speaker would be a bad thing for the GOP because he's not really on the ballot to necessarily get the horde of rural voters out while the Dems, who are typically more indifferent to mid-terms on average, would be motivated. Without Trump, I think the Republicans decidedly heighten their chances.

 

JD Vance is kicking off this Senate campaign in embarrassing fashion. I saw a tweet tonight that said he would be bare feet in overalls hee hawing before this campaign was over. Sounds accurate.

 

I think the GOP is about to run into a serious engagement problem, especially with no Trump on the ticket. Whether Dems turnout or whether it’s enough to counteract gerrymandering I just don’t know. I’m more like 70-30 GOP at the moment

 

I think the house is actually closer to about 80-20 in favor of Republicans. However the senate is an uphill climb for them. Although they only need to gain one seat to retake control, the map certainly favors Democrats. Obviously a lot can happen over the next sixteen months, at this point in 2005 no one on earth thought that Democrats could flip seats in Virginia or Montana, but the map has to be pretty discouraging for Republicans.

I think it’s safe to say that at this point there are four toss up races. Ohio, NC, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Problem for Republicans is that they currently hold all four seats. It’s hard to see them, no matter the climate, being able to hold onto all four. If Sununu runs in New Hampshire that would certainly give them a good chance of flipping that seat, but even with that, they would probably need to win in Georgia, Nevada, or Arizona.

 

They are going to get 8 seats just from the redistricting. It's all but done. Imo

 

That’s where turning out the lower propensity voters that Trump could capture is going to come into play, especially if more MTG and Boeberts win primaries. There are a lot of people turned off by the GOP right now, whether because they believe the Big Lie and don’t think the GOP did enough, or they think the GOP has left them and gone too far to the extreme.

So redistricting can be a double edged sword. There’s a needle to thread, and it’s really difficult to net seats through redistricting on paper without making other seats less safe. Those seats are even less safe if a chunk of your higher propensity voters won’t vote for the candidate that won the primary because said candidate is too extreme, or a chunk of the lower propensity voters that got you here go back to their normal voting patterns and stay home because they are pissed off at the status quo candidate.

All in all, I can see it going the way you are describing it because nothing else really changes from the last few cycles except the redistricting. I can also seeing there being a lot more toss ups than we’ve seen in a while because some state legislatures and state parties simply fail to thread that needle

But we are really in uncharted territory here. It’s typically not the GOP that has to be concerned with turnout questions and fractures in the party at large. So, despite the current math, I’m slightly more bullish on the Dems chances than you simply because the GOP on July 11, 2021 has a few more potential problems than the Dems, albeit from a better starting position.

 

All good points but I will guarantee the GOP voters will show up no matter what. They dislike the Democratic party more than they like or dislike any one person from their party.

 

This whitewashing of the January 6th insurrection has been a marvel in disassociating reality from a narrative, exemplified by the Ashli Babbitt as the innocent victim "Who shot her?" push. This morning she was described as a "beautiful innocent victim" by a woman interviewing Trump on Fox.

 

lol, what on earth?

Idk about describing her as a “beautiful, innocent victim,” but I think it’s fair to ask whether the level of force used was necessary and justified. We do it with other cases all the time, so why not this one as well?

 

this guardian/russia story has to be kept in context. if Russia is putting it out there, it is for their benefit in some way. impossible to say if it is false, true, or a mix. it's exactly what the left wants to hear, so the objective is clearly to stir the pot. We can't let russia and china manipulate us so easily, as they have so easily since 2009.

 

It's a pretty persuasive article to be taken with the grain of salt you note, but the reality is no matter how accurate it may be the current landscape will tolerate no narrative other than the one wants to believe, particularly from the hard core Trumpists. It's simply another piece of evidence of "the Swamp" or "Main Stream Media" trying to destroy Trump and America. This cohort is the same people like my Great Uncle, who sent me a video this morning about how the Covid vaccine is designed either as a scientific experiment or an attempt at global genocide, set up by a fake pandemic. He's an older guy and it's shocking how many of my family members over a certain age buy into this stuff. So, we're long gone on the truth for a sizeable chunk of the country, abetted by the media they are watching in Newsmax, OAN and, to an extent, Fox (a fair portion even feeling Fox doesn't go far enough).

 

there are nuggets they want you and me to consume. America being "permanently weakened." Fuel division. Question others' patriotism based on things they have no knowledge of. Focus on those things and internal strife rather than solutions or common causes. make no mistake, this is the entire point. they have no domestic agenda of their own, just keeping us at each other's throats. get us to question democracy itself. they continue to be successful.

 

Pelosi tweets daily about the great things dems are doing and how bad Republicans are. The division in the US is due to our own media and politicians. It's good for business and their pockets

 

I blame the citizens. We choose to consume this shit and believe it.