The Stock Market Thread

the fed just now started QT and was still doing QE in April.

they’ve created a mess and with the latest inflation print that pretty much took the soft landing off the table in my opinion.

it took the fed dumpling about 13% of their books to break the repo market in 18’


If you have to put money in something right now dividend paying stocks that sells a product that consumers must buy not just a luxury

 

What if we don’t see hyperinflation? Did I just blow your mind?

 

They’ve been printing money for decades

 

when you are afraid that’s when you buy. Not saying you are afraid now just saying that is when you buy

 

Be scared when everyone else is greedy, be greedy when everyone else is scared.

 

most of the money creation was from bank lending and not direct stimulus like 2020. But we’ve seen artificial inflation in assets since 08’ too it’s just now spilled into the broad market.

I’d say we’re getting close to hyper inflation now because true inflation is more in the 15%-20% than the cooked books of 8.4

 

but if the fed doesn’t come to save the day just buying the dips can get you in trouble.

there’s still broadly speaking a lot more blood that will be in the streets before this over.

I do think some of the tech stocks have bleed a ton but the issue with that is I don’t know which ones will go to zero either because if the environment of easy money is over a lot of these companies aren’t going to survive

 

yeah the second stimulus was very dumb, but it leaves the system eventually.

look at the assets that are inflating right now. It’s not broad based and it’s primarily in areas that aren’t huge consumer areas. I expect lower inflation soon

 

Consumer and business’ are wealthy and strong. Part can become a self fulfilling prophecy to a major recession, but this isn’t 2008 by a long stretch

as usual buy companies that actually make money

 

We’ve not even hit peak inflation yet and it’s just now starting to hit the service business side.

I think it’s going to be way more sticky than you and is going to keep the fed from changing course

 

it’s all about inflation expectations. This looks like a blowout to me, there’s nothing happening that suggests a long term trend, but if people expect hyper inflation we will get it. Just need some good news

 

coinbase laying off 18% (1,100) of employees, "preparing for a crypto winter." All the shitcoins are going to go extinct. It'll be bitcoin, etherium, and not a lot else.

 

yup. pick the winner and you make a lot of money, pick the loser and it goes under. same with the dot coms or biotech when it started.

 

I don’t even know if etherium wins. It’s a security in my view.

 

Oh, oh Shiba, I wanna love you till the morning comes

 

One of my favorite Buffett quotes.

 

had a client today tell me this drop is the worst ever according to what she's been hearing. have people already forgotten what happened just 2 YEARS AGO?

 

Yes. They forget everything longer than 1.99 years ago. No one remembers 2008. Or the dot.com bubble. Or the early 90's. Or the early 80's. Or late 70's. And so on.

 

The amount of hand wringing makes me think we are going to flatten out soon.

 

yup and everyone I talk to thinks inflation is going to be high forever. You know what that means