The Stock Market Thread

All I know is that I’ve enjoyed riding Continental resources the last year plus. I jumped off today.

 

I know I'm not covering new ground here, but I look at real estate all the time and it is just absolute and complete insanity out there. I bought my first home December 2020 and I'm so lucky I got in when I did, I don't know what I would do now. Multiple people that work under me want to buy and I've seen the offers they've made and it's so sad. I zoom around zillow in Knoxville and there is simply no way in hell people can afford to make payments at these rates now. I'm not going to hold my breath on a soft landing.

 

There will be no landing in Knoxville as far as I am concerned. Too much money pouring in from out of state to buy here. My kids will be living with me forever.

 

30 year mortgage will most likely hit 7% that will cool a lot of the demand

 

It's cooling off some per a realtor client of mine. Couldn't keep going that hot forever. Maybe all the Californians that want to move here have.

I just don't know what percentage of these are ARMs versus 15 years ago.

 

its crazy my 30 year refi got done at 2.5%

 

I got a 3.5 in 2022. I can't complain too much.

 

I don't know, it certainly isn’t right.

 

2020 in November and December was a wild time buying houses.

was getting them really cheap because that first real wave was hitting and was able to buy 0% down and just a tad over 3% interest

 

Even still, I remember my Dad being like “I’m just not sure that house is worth what you’re paying”. And while I thought he was naïve to the market somewhat, I wouldn’t have said I thought he was crazy either. And I could’ve sold it for 40% more than I paid a month ago (and maybe still today, I don’t know). And considering what it is, it’s not what anyone who could truly afford it would be looking for at all.

 

Same boat. Feel like we overpaid, yet it is worth 15% more a year later

 

In mid-1979 our first house we got 8.75% VA mortgage. And that was low. I changed jobs YE 1980 and we had to sell/move quick. Mortgage rates were 10% and climbing. Only way we could move the house was sell the house with the 8.75% loan assumable.

New job, new state we rented for 6 months and bought a house. We bought in June of 1981. Interest rates were 13.5%. Builder had built a spec home, it sat on market and he was gonna lose the house, his 12% construction loan was due. I negotiated $50k off asking price, the 12% loan rate and he paid closing. Then over time you just keep refinancing as the rates go down. Provided you just refinance the outstanding capital and not capital + equity.

In my experience, if the price for houses are reasonable you can deal with the interest. Problem is you have these large companies buying up the inventory at crazy cash prices and turning them into rentals. Pushing the average family out of the buyers' market.

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/distres...anada-s-once-booming-housing-market-1.1780269

Found on Reddit. Might be almost time to get greedy here soon

 

It also seems as though Canadian housing trends lead the US's by a little bit. Probably just because it is a smaller ecosystem up there but with the same principles.

 

A lot of people are moving from out of state and paying cash

 

Moving from out of state and into every state and paying cash. There is something funny about it, because it is happening everywhere simultaneously. Alaska, Vermont, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia...

 

I'm watching it first hand in middle Tennessee, most are from California and Chicago.

People I know that are real estate agents and contractors around Knoxville are watching Minnesota and Wisconsin people move in droves around Watts Bar

 

Seems like I meet a transplant from California every other day. We had a knock on the door cash offer on our house, as is, and I need upgrades. But there is nowhere for me to go for another 4 years and by then it’ll probably be back down

 

We built twelve spec homes this past year, every one of them was bought by an out of state person and only two were financed.

We've done an extensive remodel for a transplanted California couple. I'm building a custom home for a Boston guy now.

I've done six commercial projects and firing up two more for California and Chicago people.

I'm meeting with some native Californians today about a lot of work.

 

Seems like property tax for non residents ought to be looked at.